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A Knowledge Based System for Medium Term Load Forecasting
handle: 11573/237519 , 11697/32940
The paper reports a new methodology for the medium term load forecasting providing monthly energy consumption and monthly maximum demand for a municipal utility. To this aim a modular procedure, based on an artificial neural network (ANN), which is a multi-layer perceptron using a back-propagation feed-forward algorithm, is implemented. The monthly forecasts are obtained through some knowledge based activities from the output of stage providing annual energy forecast. The choice of the prediction stage is reported by illustrating the results of a comparison with canonical statistical methods, such as exponential smoothing and ARIMA. The whole knowledge based procedure is illustrated in due detail and some best forecasting performances are reported thus demonstrating validity of the proposed approach
- Sapienza University of Rome Italy
- University of L'Aquila Italy
artificial neural network; knowledge based system; medium term load forecasting; power system planning; statistical forecasting methods
artificial neural network; knowledge based system; medium term load forecasting; power system planning; statistical forecasting methods
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).7 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Average influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Average impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Average
