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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao IEEE Transactions on...arrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks and Learning Systems
Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
License: IEEE Copyright
Data sources: Crossref
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Distribution-Free Probability Density Forecast Through Deep Neural Networks

Authors: Tianyu Hu; Qinglai Guo; Zhengshuo Li; Xinwei Shen; Hongbin Sun;

Distribution-Free Probability Density Forecast Through Deep Neural Networks

Abstract

Probability density forecast offers the whole distributions of forecasting targets, which brings greater flexibility and practicability than the other probabilistic forecast models such as prediction interval (PI) and quantile forecast. However, existing density forecast models have introduced various constraints on forecasted distributions, which has limited their ability to approximate real distributions and may result in suboptimality. In this paper, a distribution-free density forecast model based on deep learning is proposed, in which the real cumulative density functions (CDFs) of forecasting target are approximated by a large-capacity positive-weighted deep neural network (NN). Benefiting from the universal approximation ability of NNs, the range of forecasted distributions has been proven to contain all the distributions with continuous CDFs, which is superior to existing models' considering both width and accordance with reality. Three tests from different scenarios were implemented for evaluation, i.e., very-short-term wind power, wind speed, and day-ahead electricity price forecast, in which the proposed density forecast model has shown superior performance over the state of the art.

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
29
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%