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IEEE Transactions on Power Systems
Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
License: IEEE Copyright
Data sources: Crossref
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
Article . 2023
License: arXiv Non-Exclusive Distribution
Data sources: Datacite
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Adaptive Probabilistic Forecasting of Electricity (Net-)Load

Authors: Joseph de Vilmarest; Jethro Browell; Matteo Fasiolo; Yannig Goude; Olivier Wintenberger;

Adaptive Probabilistic Forecasting of Electricity (Net-)Load

Abstract

Electricity load forecasting is a necessary capability for power system operators and electricity market participants. The proliferation of local generation, demand response, and electrification of heat and transport are changing the fundamental drivers of electricity load and increasing the complexity of load modelling and forecasting. We address this challenge in two ways. First, our setting is adaptive; our models take into account the most recent observations available, yielding a forecasting strategy able to automatically respond to changes in the underlying process. Second, we consider probabilistic rather than point forecasting; indeed, uncertainty quantification is required to operate electricity systems efficiently and reliably. Our methodology relies on the Kalman filter, previously used successfully for adaptive point load forecasting. The probabilistic forecasts are obtained by quantile regressions on the residuals of the point forecasting model. We achieve adaptive quantile regressions using the online gradient descent; we avoid the choice of the gradient step size considering multiple learning rates and aggregation of experts. We apply the method to two data sets: the regional net-load in Great Britain and the demand of seven large cities in the United States. Adaptive procedures improve forecast performance substantially in both use cases for both point and probabilistic forecasting.

Country
United Kingdom
Keywords

FOS: Computer and information sciences, 330, Machine Learning (stat.ML), Statistics - Applications, Methodology (stat.ME), Statistics - Machine Learning, Applications (stat.AP), Statistics - Methodology

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
3
Average
Average
Average
Green
Related to Research communities
Energy Research