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DiffLoad: Uncertainty Quantification in Electrical Load Forecasting With the Diffusion Model

Electrical load forecasting plays a crucial role in decision-making for power systems, including unit commitment and economic dispatch. The integration of renewable energy sources and the occurrence of external events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, have rapidly increased uncertainties in load forecasting. The uncertainties in load forecasting can be divided into two types: epistemic uncertainty and aleatoric uncertainty. Separating these types of uncertainties can help decision-makers better understand where and to what extent the uncertainty is, thereby enhancing their confidence in the following decision-making. This paper proposes a diffusion-based Seq2Seq structure to estimate epistemic uncertainty and employs the robust additive Cauchy distribution to estimate aleatoric uncertainty. Our method not only ensures the accuracy of load forecasting but also demonstrates the ability to separate the two types of uncertainties and be applicable to different levels of loads. The relevant code can be found at \url{https://anonymous.4open.science/r/DiffLoad-4714/}.
Accepted by IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2024
- University of Hong Kong China (People's Republic of)
- University of Hong Kong China (People's Republic of)
- Alibaba Group (China) China (People's Republic of)
- Alibaba Group (China) China (People's Republic of)
FOS: Computer and information sciences, Computer Science - Machine Learning, Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI), Computer Science - Artificial Intelligence, Statistics - Machine Learning, Machine Learning (stat.ML), Machine Learning (cs.LG)
FOS: Computer and information sciences, Computer Science - Machine Learning, Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI), Computer Science - Artificial Intelligence, Statistics - Machine Learning, Machine Learning (stat.ML), Machine Learning (cs.LG)
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).2 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Average influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Average impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Average
