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Data-Driven Risk Preference Analysis in Day-Ahead Electricity Market

Risk preference is an important factor in electricity market strategy analysis and decision-making. The existing methods of risk preference analysis need to design and execute questionnaires or experiments on the subjects, and hence are costly and time-consuming for bidding in electricity markets. This article proposes a new method of data-driven risk preference analysis for power generation plants based on historical data and inverse reinforcement learning. Historical data are transformed to the transition function model according to the specific market mechanism. An adjusted inverse reinforcement learning model is thereafter proposed along with the optimization objective and technical constraints. The proposed method is tested in a simulated electricity market environment using the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) day-ahead bidding data. Simulation results show that 1) thermal power plants prefer to adjust risk preferences within the day; 2) apart from the thermal power plants, the rest types of power plants are risk-neutral; 3) the daily risk preference trend of the thermal power plants varies in different seasons and is closely related to the load level.
- UNSW Sydney Australia
- Zhejiang Ocean University China (People's Republic of)
- Zhejiang Ocean University China (People's Republic of)
- Electric Power Research Institute United States
- Electric Power Research Institute United States
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).17 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
