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IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy
Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
License: IEEE Copyright
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Hidden Markov Models for Wind Farm Power Output

Authors: Debarati Bhaumik; Daan Crommelin; Stella Kapodistria; Bert Zwart;

Hidden Markov Models for Wind Farm Power Output

Abstract

The reliability of the transmission grid is challenged by the integration of intermittent renewable energy sources into the grid. For model-based reliability studies, it is important to have suitable models available of renewable energy sources like wind and solar power. In this study, we investigate to what extent the power output of wind farms can be modeled with discrete Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). The parameters of the HMMs are inferred from measurement data from multiple turbines in a wind farm. We use these models both for individual turbine output and for total aggregated power output of multiple turbines. When modeling individual turbine output, the hidden process in the HMM is instrumental in capturing the dependencies between the output of the different turbines. It is important to account for these dependencies in order to correctly capture the upper quantiles (90%, 95%, 99%) of the distribution of the wind farm aggregated power output. We show that despite their simple structure, HMMs are able to reproduce important features of the power output of wind farms. This opens up possibilities to model and analyze these features with methods and techniques stemming from the field of Markov models and stochastic processes.

Keywords

power system modeling, Sustainability and the Environment, hidden Markov models, Data models, Time series analysis, Power system reliability, Power system modeling, Wind speed, data models, Stochastic processes, time series analysis, Wind turbines, Wind farms, Wind farm power generation, Hidden Markov models, Renewable Energy, Wind power generation, Hidden Markov Models

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    21
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
21
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
bronze