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Modelling climate change impacts on viticultural yield, phenology and stress conditions in Europe

Authors: Fraga, Helder José Chaves; Garcia de Cortazar Atauri, Inaki; Malheiro, Aureliano Natálio Coelho; Santos, J.A.;

Modelling climate change impacts on viticultural yield, phenology and stress conditions in Europe

Abstract

AbstractViticulture is a key socio‐economic sector in Europe. Owing to the strong sensitivity of grapevines to atmospheric factors, climate change may represent an important challenge for this sector. This study analyses viticultural suitability, yield, phenology, and water and nitrogen stress indices in Europe, for present climates (1980–2005) and future (2041–2070) climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5). The STICS crop model is coupled with climate, soil and terrain databases, also taking into account CO2 physiological effects, and simulations are validated against observational data sets. A clear agreement between simulated and observed phenology, leaf area index, yield and water and nitrogen stress indices, including the spatial differences throughout Europe, is shown. The projected changes highlight an extension of the climatic suitability for grapevines up to 55°N, which may represent the emergence of new winemaking regions. Despite strong regional heterogeneity, mean phenological timings (budburst, flowering, veraison and harvest) are projected to undergo significant advancements (e.g. budburst/harvest can be >1 month earlier), with implications also in the corresponding phenophase intervals. Enhanced dryness throughout Europe is also projected, with severe water stress over several regions in southern regions (e.g. southern Iberia and Italy), locally reducing yield and leaf area. Increased atmospheric CO2 partially offsets dryness effects, promoting yield and leaf area index increases in central/northern Europe. Future biomass changes may lead to modifications in nitrogen demands, with higher stress in northern/central Europe and weaker stress in southern Europe. These findings are critical decision support systems for stakeholders from the European winemaking sector.

Country
France
Keywords

[SDE] Environmental Sciences, 550, Nitrogen, [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio], Climate, Climate Change, representative concentration pathways, STICS, Water, viticulture, Carbon Dioxide, Models, Theoretical, grapevine, [SDV] Life Sciences [q-bio], Europe, climate change, Italy, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, EURO-CORDEX, europe, crop modelling, Forecasting

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
215
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 1%