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Global Change Biology
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Continuing Long‐Term Shifts in Larval Fish Phenology in the Southern California Current Ecosystem Are Matched by Rapid Advances in the North

Authors: Kathryn S. Chen; Colleen M. Petrik; Rebecca G. Asch; Andrew R. Thompson; Toby D. Auth;

Continuing Long‐Term Shifts in Larval Fish Phenology in the Southern California Current Ecosystem Are Matched by Rapid Advances in the North

Abstract

ABSTRACTChanging environmental conditions are leading to shifts in the timing of seasonal events globally. In the ocean, environmental cues affecting larval fish (ichthyoplankton) abundance may not be synchronized with factors optimizing larval and juvenile survival, making the study of ichthyoplankton phenology in the context of a changing environment critical. In the southern California Current Ecosystem (CCE), a major eastern boundary current upwelling system, significant long‐term shifts in larval fish phenology have been previously observed. To assess the stability of these estimates and extend them to the northern CCE, we evaluated multidecadal trends in ichthyoplankton abundance for 57 species from the California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations (CalCOFI) and 25 species from the Newport Hydrographic Line (NH Line). We show that on average, larval fish phenology in the southern CCE has continued to advance with an estimated rate of −0.18 ± 0.05 day year−1 from 1951 to 2022, while phenology in the northern CCE has advanced at a rate of −0.48 ± 0.26 day year−1 from 1996 to 2023. Thirty‐nine percent of species showed significant advancing phenology, 12% exhibited delayed phenology, and 49% showed no long‐term linear change. A comparison analysis showed that species in these groups had similar rates of change between the two locations for the 1997–2017 period. Phenological shifts in the southern CCE tracked changes in the phenology of upper ocean temperature, zooplankton, and upwelling. These variables poorly explained shifts in the northern CCE, where short‐term effects of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the 2014–2016 marine heatwave on ichthyoplankton phenology were observed for some species. This research highlights regional variability and continuing phenological shifts in one of the world's most productive marine ecosystems.

Country
United States
Keywords

Northeast Pacific, Pacific Ocean, Ecology, ichthyoplankton, seasonality, Climate Change, Population Dynamics, Fishes, Newport hydrographic line, Biological Sciences, eastern boundary upwelling systems, California, Environmental Management, Environmental sciences, Biological sciences, Earth sciences, climate change, Larva, Water Movements, Animals, Seasons, Environmental Sciences, Ecosystem, CalCOFI, Research Article

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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