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Reassessing the alternative ecosystem states proposition in the African savanna‐forest domain

SummaryEcologists are being challenged to predict how ecosystems will respond to climate changes. According to the Multi‐Colored World (MCW) hypothesis, climate impacts may not manifest because consumers such as fire and herbivory can override the influence of climate on ecosystem state. One MCW interpretation is that climate determinism fails because alternative ecosystem states (AES) are possible at some locations in climate space. We evaluated theoretical and empirical evidence for the proposition that forest and savanna are AES in Africa. We found that maps which infer where AES zones are located were contradictory. Moreover, data from longitudinal and experimental studies provide inconclusive evidence for AES. That is, although the forest‐savanna AES proposition is theoretically sound, the existing evidence is not yet convincing. We conclude by making the case that the AES proposition has such fundamental consequences for designing management actions to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the savanna‐forest domain that it needs a more robust evidence base before it is used to prescribe management actions.
- University of Amsterdam Netherlands
- Utrecht University Netherlands
- University Museum Utrecht Netherlands
- Laboratoire Parole et Langage France
- National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and Environment France
[SDE] Environmental Sciences, 570, bistability, climate determinism, Climate Change, forecasting, Wildfire, Forests, wildfire, Climate determinism, forest, Savanna, Forest, Herbivory, uncertainty, Ecosystem, 580, herbivory, Uncertainty, 500, Grassland, savanna, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Africa, Bistability, Forecasting
[SDE] Environmental Sciences, 570, bistability, climate determinism, Climate Change, forecasting, Wildfire, Forests, wildfire, Climate determinism, forest, Savanna, Forest, Herbivory, uncertainty, Ecosystem, 580, herbivory, Uncertainty, 500, Grassland, savanna, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Africa, Bistability, Forecasting
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).4 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Average influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Average impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Average
