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Carbon-phosphorus cycle models overestimate CO 2 enrichment response in a mature Eucalyptus forest

pmid: 38959317
pmc: PMC11221523
The importance of phosphorus (P) in regulating ecosystem responses to climate change has fostered P-cycle implementation in land surface models, but their CO 2 effects predictions have not been evaluated against measurements. Here, we perform a data-driven model evaluation where simulations of eight widely used P-enabled models were confronted with observations from a long-term free-air CO 2 enrichment experiment in a mature, P-limited Eucalyptus forest. We show that most models predicted the correct sign and magnitude of the CO 2 effect on ecosystem carbon (C) sequestration, but they generally overestimated the effects on plant C uptake and growth. We identify leaf-to-canopy scaling of photosynthesis, plant tissue stoichiometry, plant belowground C allocation, and the subsequent consequences for plant-microbial interaction as key areas in which models of ecosystem C-P interaction can be improved. Together, this data-model intercomparison reveals data-driven insights into the performance and functionality of P-enabled models and adds to the existing evidence that the global CO 2 -driven carbon sink is overestimated by models.
- French National Centre for Scientific Research France
- Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences (KNAW) Netherlands
- University of Birmingham United Kingdom
- Universidad Politécnica de Madrid Spain
- Free University of Amsterdam Pure VU Amsterdam Netherlands
580, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, 570, Eucalyptus, Carbon Sequestration, Earth, Environmental, Ecological, and Space Sciences, Atmosphere, [SDU.OCEAN] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Climate Change, Phosphorus, Carbon Dioxide, Forests, Models, Theoretical, [SDU.ENVI] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Carbon, Carbon Cycle, 410102 - Ecological impacts of climate change and ecological adaptation, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, 910 Geography & travel, Photosynthesis, 190102 - Ecosystem adaptation to climate change, environment, Ecosystem
580, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, 570, Eucalyptus, Carbon Sequestration, Earth, Environmental, Ecological, and Space Sciences, Atmosphere, [SDU.OCEAN] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Climate Change, Phosphorus, Carbon Dioxide, Forests, Models, Theoretical, [SDU.ENVI] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Carbon, Carbon Cycle, 410102 - Ecological impacts of climate change and ecological adaptation, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, 910 Geography & travel, Photosynthesis, 190102 - Ecosystem adaptation to climate change, environment, Ecosystem
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