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Carbon-phosphorus cycle models overestimate CO 2 enrichment response in a mature Eucalyptus forest

Authors: Jiang, Mingkai; Medlyn, Belinda; Wårlind, David; Knauer, Jürgen; Fleischer, Katrin; Goll, Daniel; Olin, Stefan; +26 Authors

Carbon-phosphorus cycle models overestimate CO 2 enrichment response in a mature Eucalyptus forest

Abstract

The importance of phosphorus (P) in regulating ecosystem responses to climate change has fostered P-cycle implementation in land surface models, but their CO 2 effects predictions have not been evaluated against measurements. Here, we perform a data-driven model evaluation where simulations of eight widely used P-enabled models were confronted with observations from a long-term free-air CO 2 enrichment experiment in a mature, P-limited Eucalyptus forest. We show that most models predicted the correct sign and magnitude of the CO 2 effect on ecosystem carbon (C) sequestration, but they generally overestimated the effects on plant C uptake and growth. We identify leaf-to-canopy scaling of photosynthesis, plant tissue stoichiometry, plant belowground C allocation, and the subsequent consequences for plant-microbial interaction as key areas in which models of ecosystem C-P interaction can be improved. Together, this data-model intercomparison reveals data-driven insights into the performance and functionality of P-enabled models and adds to the existing evidence that the global CO 2 -driven carbon sink is overestimated by models.

Countries
Netherlands, Netherlands, France, Netherlands, Switzerland, United Kingdom, Netherlands, Spain, Morocco
Keywords

580, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, 570, Eucalyptus, Carbon Sequestration, Earth, Environmental, Ecological, and Space Sciences, Atmosphere, [SDU.OCEAN] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Climate Change, Phosphorus, Carbon Dioxide, Forests, Models, Theoretical, [SDU.ENVI] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Carbon, Carbon Cycle, 410102 - Ecological impacts of climate change and ecological adaptation, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, 910 Geography & travel, Photosynthesis, 190102 - Ecosystem adaptation to climate change, environment, Ecosystem

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    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    4
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
4
Average
Average
Average
Green
gold