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Modeling Potential Equilibrium States of Vegetation and Terrestrial Water Cycle of Mesoamerica under Climate Change Scenarios*

descriptionPublicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Journal , Other literature type 01 Apr 2012 France Publisher:American Meteorological SocietyJournal:Journal of Hydrometeorology, volume 13, pages 665-680 (issn: 1525-755X, eissn: 1525-7541,

Authors: Imbach, Pablo; Molina, Luis; Locatelli, Bruno; Roupsard, Olivier; Mahe, Gil; Neilson, Ronald; Corrales, Lenin; +2 Authors

doi: 10.1175/jhm-d-11-023.1

handle: 10568/21006

Modeling Potential Equilibrium States of Vegetation and Terrestrial Water Cycle of Mesoamerica under Climate Change Scenarios*

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Abstract

Abstract The likelihood and magnitude of the impacts of climate change on potential vegetation and the water cycle in Mesoamerica is evaluated. Mesoamerica is a global biodiversity hotspot with highly diverse topographic and climatic conditions and is among the tropical regions with the highest expected changes in precipitation and temperature under future climate scenarios. The biogeographic soil–vegetation–atmosphere model Mapped Atmosphere Plant Soil System (MAPSS) was used for simulating the integrated changes in leaf area index (LAI), vegetation types (grass, shrubs, and trees), evapotranspiration, and runoff at the end of the twenty-first century. Uncertainty was estimated as the likelihood of changes in vegetation and water cycle under three ensembles of model runs, one for each of the groups of greenhouse gas emission scenarios (low, intermediate, and high emissions), for a total of 136 runs generated with 23 general circulation models (GCMs). LAI is likely to decrease over 77%–89% of the region, depending on climate scenario groups, showing that potential vegetation will likely shift from humid to dry types. Accounting for potential effects of CO2 on water use efficiency significantly decreased impacts on LAI. Runoff will decrease across the region even in areas where precipitation increases (even under increased water use efficiency), as temperature change will increase evapotranspiration. Higher emission scenarios show lower uncertainty (higher likelihood) in modeled impacts. Although the projection spread is high for future precipitation, the impacts of climate change on vegetation and water cycle are predicted with relatively low uncertainty.

Country

France

Related Organizations

HSM
United States
CGIAR
France
CGIAR
France
United States Department of the Interior
United States
Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement
France

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Keywords

550, hydrology, runoff, adaptation, Relation plante eau, forest, [SDU.STU.CL] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Relevé (des données), uncertainty, leaf area index, Surface foliaire, Ruissellement, B10 - Géographie, [ SDE.MCG ] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, climate change, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, STU:CL] Sciences of the Universe/Earth Sciences/Climatology [[SDU], impact, MCG] Sciences de l'environnement/Milieux et Changements globaux [[SDE], P01 - Conservation de la nature et ressources foncières, [ SDU.STU.CL ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Gaz à effet de serre, Modèle mathématique, P40 - Météorologie et climatologie, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Relation plante sol, likelihood, evapotranspiration, STU:HY] Sciences of the Universe/Earth Sciences/Hydrology [[SDU], water resources, STU:HY] Planète et Univers/Sciences de la Terre/Hydrologie [[SDU], vegetation, MCG] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes [[SDE], [SDU.STU.HY] Sciences of the Universe/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, [SDU.STU.HY]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, impacts, 580, Changement climatique, ecosystem, Précipitation, U10 - Méthodes mathématiques et statistiques, STU:CL] Planète et Univers/Sciences de la Terre/Climatologie [[SDU], Impact sur l'environnement, Modèle de simulation, Cycle hydrologique, Végétation, Évapotranspiration, Température, GCM, LAI, F60 - Physiologie et biochimie végétales, [SDE.MCG] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, [SDU.STU.CL] Sciences of the Universe/Earth Sciences/Climatology, [SDU.STU.HY] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, MAPSS, [ SDU.STU.HY ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, ecosystem services, agrovoc: agrovoc:c_34841, agrovoc: agrovoc:c_24242, agrovoc: agrovoc:c_6161, agrovoc: agrovoc:c_7536, agrovoc: agrovoc:c_7657, agrovoc: agrovoc:c_16146, agrovoc: agrovoc:c_16147, agrovoc: agrovoc:c_1434, agrovoc: agrovoc:c_24199, agrovoc: agrovoc:c_8176, agrovoc: agrovoc:c_1666, agrovoc: agrovoc:c_24420, agrovoc: agrovoc:c_11670, agrovoc: agrovoc:c_2741, agrovoc: agrovoc:c_35388, agrovoc: agrovoc:c_16110

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	citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).	43
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	influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).	Top 10%
	impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.	Top 10%