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The Plumbing of Land Surface Models: Is Poor Performance a Result of Methodology or Data Quality?

Abstract The Protocol for the Analysis of Land Surface Models (PALS) Land Surface Model Benchmarking Evaluation Project (PLUMBER) illustrated the value of prescribing a priori performance targets in model intercomparisons. It showed that the performance of turbulent energy flux predictions from different land surface models, at a broad range of flux tower sites using common evaluation metrics, was on average worse than relatively simple empirical models. For sensible heat fluxes, all land surface models were outperformed by a linear regression against downward shortwave radiation. For latent heat flux, all land surface models were outperformed by a regression against downward shortwave radiation, surface air temperature, and relative humidity. These results are explored here in greater detail and possible causes are investigated. It is examined whether particular metrics or sites unduly influence the collated results, whether results change according to time-scale aggregation, and whether a lack of energy conservation in flux tower data gives the empirical models an unfair advantage in the intercomparison. It is demonstrated that energy conservation in the observational data is not responsible for these results. It is also shown that the partitioning between sensible and latent heat fluxes in LSMs, rather than the calculation of available energy, is the cause of the original findings. Finally, evidence is presented that suggests that the nature of this partitioning problem is likely shared among all contributing LSMs. While a single candidate explanation for why land surface models perform poorly relative to empirical benchmarks in PLUMBER could not be found, multiple possible explanations are excluded and guidance is provided on where future research should focus.
- Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research Germany
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration United States
- French National Centre for Scientific Research France
- Met Office United Kingdom
- Goddard Space Flight Center United States
[SDE] Environmental Sciences, 550, Climate, Project, 910, [SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology, anzsrc-for: 0401 Atmospheric Sciences, ice roads, [SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Ecosystems, [SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, Atmosphere Coupling Experiment, Energy-balance Closure, Soil-moisture, Climate, Project, Co2, Impact, Glace, Phase, [SDV.EE.ECO] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Ecosystems, Co2, Arctic transport, anzsrc-for: 3701 Atmospheric Sciences, [SDU.STU.HY]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, [SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment, [SDU.STU.ME] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology, 37 Earth Sciences, anzsrc-for: 37 Earth Sciences, [SDV.EE] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment, Impact, climate change, Phase, [SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, land surface models, winter roads, 3701 Atmospheric Sciences, [SDU.STU.HY] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, Energy-balance Closure, Soil-moisture, Arctic accessibility, environment/Ecosystems, Atmosphere Coupling Experiment, Glace, environment, permafrost
[SDE] Environmental Sciences, 550, Climate, Project, 910, [SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology, anzsrc-for: 0401 Atmospheric Sciences, ice roads, [SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Ecosystems, [SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, Atmosphere Coupling Experiment, Energy-balance Closure, Soil-moisture, Climate, Project, Co2, Impact, Glace, Phase, [SDV.EE.ECO] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Ecosystems, Co2, Arctic transport, anzsrc-for: 3701 Atmospheric Sciences, [SDU.STU.HY]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, [SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment, [SDU.STU.ME] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology, 37 Earth Sciences, anzsrc-for: 37 Earth Sciences, [SDV.EE] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment, Impact, climate change, Phase, [SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, land surface models, winter roads, 3701 Atmospheric Sciences, [SDU.STU.HY] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, Energy-balance Closure, Soil-moisture, Arctic accessibility, environment/Ecosystems, Atmosphere Coupling Experiment, Glace, environment, permafrost
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).45 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
