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Bayesian bootstrap quantile regression for probabilistic photovoltaic power forecasting

handle: 11588/848200 , 11367/86856
AbstractPhotovoltaic (PV) systems are widely spread across MV and LV distribution systems and the penetration of PV generation is solidly growing. Because of the uncertain nature of the solar energy resource, PV power forecasting models are crucial in any energy management system for smart distribution networks. Although point forecasts can suit many scopes, probabilistic forecasts add further flexibility to an energy management system and are recommended to enable a wider range of decision making and optimization strategies. This paper proposes methodology towards probabilistic PV power forecasting based on a Bayesian bootstrap quantile regression model, in which a Bayesian bootstrap is applied to estimate the parameters of a quantile regression model. A novel procedure is presented to optimize the extraction of the predictive quantiles from the bootstrapped estimation of the related coefficients, raising the predictive ability of the final forecasts. Numerical experiments based on actual data quantify an enhancement of the performance of up to 2.2% when compared to relevant benchmarks.
- University of Applied Sciences and Arts Western Switzerland Switzerland
- Parthenope University of Naples Italy
- Ostschweizer Fachhochschule OST Switzerland
- University Federico II of Naples Italy
- University of Applied Sciences of Eastern Switzerland Switzerland
Bayesian bootstrap, Photovoltaic systems, Probabilistic forecasting, Renewable generation, smart grids, TK1001-1841, Distribution or transmission of electric power, Probabilistic forecasting, Bayesian bootstrap; Photovoltaic systems; Probabilistic forecasting; Renewable generation; smart grids, TK3001-3521, Renewable generation; smart grids, Production of electric energy or power. Powerplants. Central stations, smart grids, Renewable generation, Bayesian bootstrap, Photovoltaic systems
Bayesian bootstrap, Photovoltaic systems, Probabilistic forecasting, Renewable generation, smart grids, TK1001-1841, Distribution or transmission of electric power, Probabilistic forecasting, Bayesian bootstrap; Photovoltaic systems; Probabilistic forecasting; Renewable generation; smart grids, TK3001-3521, Renewable generation; smart grids, Production of electric energy or power. Powerplants. Central stations, smart grids, Renewable generation, Bayesian bootstrap, Photovoltaic systems
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