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Prediction of domestic appliances usage based on electrical consumption

Authors: Huber Mittler, Patrick (Autor/in); Gerber, Mario (Autor/in); Rumsch, Andreas (Autor/in); Paice, Andrew (Autor/in);

Prediction of domestic appliances usage based on electrical consumption

Abstract

Forecasting or modeling the on-off times of domestic appliances has gained increasing attention in recent years. However, comparing currently published results is difficult due to the many different data-sets and performance measures employed. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of three increasingly sophisticated approaches within a common framework on three data-sets each spanning 2 years. The approaches forecast the future on-off times of the appliances for the next 24 h on an hourly basis, solely based on historic energy consumption data. The appliances investigated are driven by user behavior and consume a significant fraction of the household’s total electrical energy consumption. We find that for all algorithms the average area under curve (AUC) in the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) is in the range between 72% and 73%, i.e. indicating mediocre prediction quality. We conclude that historic consumption data alone is not sufficient for a good quality hourly forecast.

+ ID der Publikation: hslu_57939 + Art des Beitrages: Wissenschaftliche Medien + Jahrgang: 2018 + Sprache: Englisch + Letzte Aktualisierung: 2019-01-22 15:04:54

Country
Switzerland
Keywords

Load forecasting, Domestic appliance, load forecasting, domestic appliance, Energy industries. Energy policy. Fuel trade, Shiftable loads, Experimental comparison, experimental comparison, HD9502-9502.5, shiftable loads

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
views
OpenAIRE UsageCountsViews provided by UsageCounts
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13
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470
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