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System dynamic modelling of electricity planning and climate change in West Africa

النمذجة الديناميكية للنظام لتخطيط الكهرباء وتغير المناخ في غرب أفريقيا
Authors: Abiodun S. Momodu; Lucy Kivuti-Bitok;

System dynamic modelling of electricity planning and climate change in West Africa

Abstract

Background: It is imperative to develop an efficient strategic approach to managing the push-pull factor in economic development, particularly as relates to climate change and energy interactions in the West African Region. This article demonstrates the use of System Dynamics Modelling (SDM) for that purpose; to manage the development of energy growth with reduced impact in regards to climate change. The complexities of energy planning in relation to climate change necessitates the need for the tool to examine low carbon economy mixed with traditional approaches of planning. Methods: Vensim DSS version 6.2 was used to develop the model. WAPP member country level data elicited from WAPP and ECOWAS Regional Electricity Regulatory Authority (ERERA) serves as the set of basic data used to develop and run the main model. These were complemented with other data elicited from various journal articles and internet sources. These include population and its average growth rate, GDP, per capita income, average per capita electricity demand, electricity generated, average electricity tariff, generation technology type, amongst others. Results: SDM demonstrates the capability to understand the theoretical frame for trade-offs between economic development and climate change, by handling the nonlinear relationship between generation adequacy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction for better targeted strategic regional intervention on climate change. Conclusion: The primary goal of this paper was to demonstrate the use of SDM to aid in resource planning in an inexpensive way to examine low carbon pathway. With the SDM, the goal of low carbon pathway in the energy system was achieved without the cost of controlled trials.

Keywords

Renewable energy, Economics, Social Sciences, International trade, Energy planning, System Dynamics Modeling and Applications, Decision Sciences, Engineering, Soft Systems Methodology, Electricity, Natural resource economics, Sociology, Climate change, Business, Environmental resource management, Energy, Ecology, Physics, Per capita, Power (physics), FOS: Sociology, Economics, Econometrics and Finance, Physical Sciences, Tariff, Global Energy Transition and Fossil Fuel Depletion, Research Article, Economic Implications of Climate Change Policies, Economics and Econometrics, Environmental economics, Population, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, Management Science and Operations Research, Greenhouse gas, Quantum mechanics, System Dynamics, Weak and Strong Sustainability, Biology, Demography, Electricity generation, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Modeling, Measurement and Evaluation of Sustainable Development, FOS: Biological sciences, Electrical engineering, Environmental Science, Group Model Building

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    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
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    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
2
Average
Average
Average
Green
gold