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Method to Model the Hourly Variability of Renewable Energy Sources in Integrated Assessment Models

A decarbonized economy implies deep structural changes across industries, including the power system, whose operation needs to balance supply and demand instantaneously. The energy planning community usually work with hourly-resolution tools, while the integrated assessment community do so with the year as the time unit. This article describes a model that integrates both time frames to consider limitations and competition among suppliers of electricity in long-term scenarios, with Spain as the case of study. The calibration was carried out over four historical years (2017-2020, including the impact of Covid) to show both the sensitivity of different meteorological conditions and differences in the ranking of priorities to supply power. The results show values below Spain’s objective of 74% presence of renewables in the electricity mix in 2030; while this objective is reached by our own proposal.
- University of Valladolid Spain
Technology, Integrated assessment model; energy transition; policy; power system; Vensim; PNIEC; NECP., T, Economic growth, development, planning, necp., pniec, 3322 Tecnología Energética, energy transition, power system, Integrated assessment model (IAM), integrated assessment model, vensim, HD72-88, Vensim, PNIEC, NECP, 3306 Ingeniería y Tecnología Eléctricas, policy
Technology, Integrated assessment model; energy transition; policy; power system; Vensim; PNIEC; NECP., T, Economic growth, development, planning, necp., pniec, 3322 Tecnología Energética, energy transition, power system, Integrated assessment model (IAM), integrated assessment model, vensim, HD72-88, Vensim, PNIEC, NECP, 3306 Ingeniería y Tecnología Eléctricas, policy
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).2 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Average influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Average impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Average
