Assessing “Dangerous Climate Change”: Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature
Copyright policy )Assessing “Dangerous Climate Change”: Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature
We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth’s measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today’s young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ~500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ~1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur “slow” feedbacks and eventual warming of 3–4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth’s energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.
- École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne EPFL Switzerland
- University of Southampton United Kingdom
- University of Oxford United Kingdom
- University of Chicago United States
- French Research Institute for Exploitation of the Sea France
550, Earth, Planet, global temperature, social responsibility, Antarctic Ice-Sheet, Review, land-use change, 1100 Agricultural and Biological Sciences, anthropogenic carbon, SDG 13 - Climate Action, fossil fuels, humans, SDG 15 - Life on Land, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Global warming--Moral and ethical aspects, Social Responsibility, GE, Q, R, last interglacial highstand, General Medicine, ice sheet, [SDU.ENVI] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, animals, climate change, Policy, Medicine, probabilistic assessment, General Agricultural and Biological Sciences, environment, GE Environmental Sciences, policy, oil sands, intense preciptation, 1300 Biochemistry, Science, Climate Change, 610, Genetics and Molecular Biology, 333, Animals, Humans, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Paleoclimatology, oceans, Ecosystem, paleopedology, earth (planet), ecosystem, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, [SDU.OCEAN] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, carbon, paleoclimatology, carbon dioxide, sea-level rise, Climatic changes, greenhouse-gas emissions, carbon sequestration, Carbon, Environmental sciences, General Biochemistry, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, Greenhouse gas mitigation
550, Earth, Planet, global temperature, social responsibility, Antarctic Ice-Sheet, Review, land-use change, 1100 Agricultural and Biological Sciences, anthropogenic carbon, SDG 13 - Climate Action, fossil fuels, humans, SDG 15 - Life on Land, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Global warming--Moral and ethical aspects, Social Responsibility, GE, Q, R, last interglacial highstand, General Medicine, ice sheet, [SDU.ENVI] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, animals, climate change, Policy, Medicine, probabilistic assessment, General Agricultural and Biological Sciences, environment, GE Environmental Sciences, policy, oil sands, intense preciptation, 1300 Biochemistry, Science, Climate Change, 610, Genetics and Molecular Biology, 333, Animals, Humans, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Paleoclimatology, oceans, Ecosystem, paleopedology, earth (planet), ecosystem, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, [SDU.OCEAN] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, carbon, paleoclimatology, carbon dioxide, sea-level rise, Climatic changes, greenhouse-gas emissions, carbon sequestration, Carbon, Environmental sciences, General Biochemistry, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, Greenhouse gas mitigation
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