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Trophic amplification: A model intercomparison of climate driven changes in marine food webs

Marine animal biomass is expected to decrease in the 21st century due to climate driven changes in ocean environmental conditions. Previous studies suggest that the magnitude of the decline in primary production on apex predators could be amplified through the trophodynamics of marine food webs, leading to larger decreases in the biomass of predators relative to the decrease in primary production, a mechanism called trophic amplification. We compared relative changes in producer and consumer biomass or production in the global ocean to assess the extent of trophic amplification. We used simulations from nine marine ecosystem models (MEMs) from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Models Intercomparison Project forced by two Earth System Models under the high greenhouse gas emissions Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5-8.5) and a scenario of no fishing. Globally, total consumer biomass is projected to decrease by 16.7 ± 9.5% more than net primary production (NPP) by 2090–2099 relative to 1995–2014, with substantial variations among MEMs and regions. Total consumer biomass is projected to decrease almost everywhere in the ocean (80% of the world’s oceans) in the model ensemble. In 40% of the world’s oceans, consumer biomass was projected to decrease more than NPP. Additionally, in another 36% of the world’s oceans consumer biomass is expected to decrease even as projected NPP increases. By analysing the biomass response within food webs in available MEMs, we found that model parameters and structures contributed to more complex responses than a consistent amplification of climate impacts of higher trophic levels. Our study provides additional insights into the ecological mechanisms that will impact marine ecosystems, thereby informing model and scenario development.
- National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and Environment France
- UNSW Sydney Australia
- University of British Columbia Canada
- University of California System United States
- Ecopath International Initiative Spain
570, Food Chain, 550, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Science, Climate, Q, R, Nutritional Status, 551, [SDE.MCG] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, [SDV.EE] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment, [SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, Medicine, Animals, Biomass, environment, Ecosystem, Research Article
570, Food Chain, 550, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Science, Climate, Q, R, Nutritional Status, 551, [SDE.MCG] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, [SDV.EE] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment, [SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, Medicine, Animals, Biomass, environment, Ecosystem, Research Article
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).10 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Average influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Average impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
