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Market Efficiency of Oil Spot and Futures: A Mean-Variance and Stochastic Dominance Approach

This paper examines the market efficiency of oil spot and futures prices by using both mean-variance (MV) and stochastic dominance (SD) approaches. Based on the West Texas Intermediate crude oil data for the sample period 1989-2008, we find no evidence of any MV and SD relationships between oil spot and futures indices. This infers that there is no arbitrage opportunity between these two markets, spot and futures do not dominate one another, investors are indifferent to investing spot or futures, and the spot and futures oil markets are efficient and rational. The empirical findings are robust to each sub-period before and after the crises for different crises, and also to portfolio diversification.
- University of Tokyo Japan
- Erasmus University Rotterdam Netherlands
- Hong Kong Baptist University China (People's Republic of)
- Universiti Sains Malaysia Malaysia
- Tinbergen Institute Netherlands
Stochastic dominance; risk averter; oil futures market; market efficiency, Stochastic dominance, risk averter, oil futures market, market efficiency, jel: jel:G15, jel: jel:G12, jel: jel:C14
Stochastic dominance; risk averter; oil futures market; market efficiency, Stochastic dominance, risk averter, oil futures market, market efficiency, jel: jel:G15, jel: jel:G12, jel: jel:C14
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).89 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
