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Fueling Growth When Oil Peaks: Directed Technological Change and the Limits to Efficiency

Directed technological change and the limits to efficiency
Authors: Francisco J. André; Sjak Smulders; Sjak Smulders;

Fueling Growth When Oil Peaks: Directed Technological Change and the Limits to Efficiency

Abstract

While fossil energy dependency has declined and energy supply has grown in the postwar world economy, future resource scarcity could cast its shadow on world economic growth soon if energy markets are forward looking. We develop an endogenous growth model that reconciles the current aggregate trends in energy use and productivity growth with the intertemporal dynamics of forward looking resource markets. Combining scarcity-rent driven energy supply (in the spirit of Hotelling) with profit-driven Directed Technical Change (in the spirit of Romer/Acemoglu), we generate transitional dynamics that can be qualitatively calibrated to current trends. The long-run properties of the model are studied to examine whether current trends are sustainable. We highlight the role of extraction costs in mining.

Countries
Netherlands, Netherlands, Spain
Keywords

5307.14 Teoría Macroeconómica, Q43, directed technical change, O41, 5307.04 Estudios del desarrollo Económico, 5307.03 Modelos y Teorías del desarrollo Económico, Q32 - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development, O41 - One, Technischer Fortschritt, Neue Wachstumstheorie, Non-renewable resources, Desarrollo económico, non-renewable resources, energy, economic growth, innovation, directed technical change, Innovation, Erschöpfbare Ressourcen, Economic growth, Energy, Q32, Macroeconomía, Two, Energieversorgung, Petrología, economic growth, innovation, non-renewable resources, and Multisector Growth Models, Q43 - Energy and the Macroeconomy, Directed technical change., Theorie, Wirtschaftliche Effizienz, energy, jel: jel:O41, jel: jel:Q43, jel: jel:Q32, ddc: ddc:330

  • BIP!
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    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
39
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green
bronze