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Fueling Growth When Oil Peaks: Directed Technological Change and the Limits to Efficiency

While fossil energy dependency has declined and energy supply has grown in the postwar world economy, future resource scarcity could cast its shadow on world economic growth soon if energy markets are forward looking. We develop an endogenous growth model that reconciles the current aggregate trends in energy use and productivity growth with the intertemporal dynamics of forward looking resource markets. Combining scarcity-rent driven energy supply (in the spirit of Hotelling) with profit-driven Directed Technical Change (in the spirit of Romer/Acemoglu), we generate transitional dynamics that can be qualitatively calibrated to current trends. The long-run properties of the model are studied to examine whether current trends are sustainable. We highlight the role of extraction costs in mining.
- Complutense University of Madrid Spain
- Tilburg University Netherlands
- University of Calgary Canada
- Universidad Complutense de Madrid Finland
- Tilburg University
5307.14 Teoría Macroeconómica, Q43, directed technical change, O41, 5307.04 Estudios del desarrollo Económico, 5307.03 Modelos y Teorías del desarrollo Económico, Q32 - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development, O41 - One, Technischer Fortschritt, Neue Wachstumstheorie, Non-renewable resources, Desarrollo económico, non-renewable resources, energy, economic growth, innovation, directed technical change, Innovation, Erschöpfbare Ressourcen, Economic growth, Energy, Q32, Macroeconomía, Two, Energieversorgung, Petrología, economic growth, innovation, non-renewable resources, and Multisector Growth Models, Q43 - Energy and the Macroeconomy, Directed technical change., Theorie, Wirtschaftliche Effizienz, energy, jel: jel:O41, jel: jel:Q43, jel: jel:Q32, ddc: ddc:330
5307.14 Teoría Macroeconómica, Q43, directed technical change, O41, 5307.04 Estudios del desarrollo Económico, 5307.03 Modelos y Teorías del desarrollo Económico, Q32 - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development, O41 - One, Technischer Fortschritt, Neue Wachstumstheorie, Non-renewable resources, Desarrollo económico, non-renewable resources, energy, economic growth, innovation, directed technical change, Innovation, Erschöpfbare Ressourcen, Economic growth, Energy, Q32, Macroeconomía, Two, Energieversorgung, Petrología, economic growth, innovation, non-renewable resources, and Multisector Growth Models, Q43 - Energy and the Macroeconomy, Directed technical change., Theorie, Wirtschaftliche Effizienz, energy, jel: jel:O41, jel: jel:Q43, jel: jel:Q32, ddc: ddc:330
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