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The Systemic Risk of Energy Markets

doi: 10.2139/ssrn.2245811
This paper investigates the meaning of systemic risk in energy markets and proposes a methodology to measure it. Energy Systemic Risk is defined by the risk of an energy crisis raising the prices of all energy commodities with negative consequences for the real economy. Measures of the total cost (EnSysRISK) and the net impact (ΔMES) of an energy crisis on the rest of the economy are proposed. The measures are derived from the Marginal Expected Shortfall (MES) capturing the tail dependence between the asset and the energy market factor. The adapted MES accounts for causality and dynamic exposure to common latent factors. The methodology is applied to the European Energy Exchange and the DAX industrial index, where a minor decline in industrial productivity is observed from recent energy shocks.
- Université Catholique de Louvain Belgium
- Centre for Economic Policy Research United Kingdom
- Centre for Economic Policy Research United Kingdom
- University of Luxembourg Luxembourg
marginal expected shortfall, energy crisis, factor models, market integration, energy crisis, factor models, marginal expected shortfall, market integration, jel: jel:C32, jel: jel:C58, jel: jel:Q43
marginal expected shortfall, energy crisis, factor models, market integration, energy crisis, factor models, marginal expected shortfall, market integration, jel: jel:C32, jel: jel:C58, jel: jel:Q43
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).9 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Average influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Average
