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Research . 2015
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Article . 2015 . Peer-reviewed
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Asset Pricing in Incomplete Markets: Valuing Gas Storage Capacity

Authors: Zhao, L.; van Wijnbergen, S.;

Asset Pricing in Incomplete Markets: Valuing Gas Storage Capacity

Abstract

We investigate the relationship between the gas spot market and the price of gas storage capacity. Contrary to the common belief, the auction prices for gas storage are mostly affected by the volatility of current market prices rather than by the winter-summer price differences. This paper provides a numerical solution for pricing storage capacity, by taking investor’s activities through the spot market and storage service into account. A bivariate Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) model is employed for modeling the dynamics of the day-ahead and month-ahead spot market prices, as well as the time-varying volatilities and correlations. Under an incomplete market setting, our model is able to approximate the realized auction prices. Moreover, one interesting implication is that the implied average risk aversion of investor for a storage contract increases with the volatility of the spot market. This is an intuitive result because storage capacity can serve as an effective hedging product for the spot market, and the demand for this product is high when the market becomes risky: more risk averse investors are participating in the auctions. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis on different injection/withdrawal rates is also included, and particularly, contracts with higher capacity rates are priced at a higher level.

Country
Netherlands
Keywords

Q41, 330, incomplete markets, stochastic volatility, Generalised Autoregressive Score modeling, incomplete markets, real options, utility indifference pricing, gas storage, capacity constraints, G12, stochastic volatility, real options, G13, gas storage, utility indifference pricing, capacity constraints, C61, C63, Generalised Autoregressive Score modeling, jel: jel:C63, jel: jel:C61, jel: jel:Q41, jel: jel:G12, jel: jel:G13, ddc: ddc:330

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
bronze
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