Energy, Knowledge, and Demo-Economic Development in the Long Run: A Unified Growth Model
Copyright policy )Energy, Knowledge, and Demo-Economic Development in the Long Run: A Unified Growth Model
This article provides a knowledge-based and energy-centred unified growth model of the transition from limited to sustained economic growth. We model the transition between: (i) a pre-modern organic regime defined by limited growth in per capita output, high fertility, low levels of human capital, technical change generated by learning-by-doing, and rare general purpose technology (GPT) arrivals; and (ii) a modern fossil regime characterized by sustained growth in per capita output, low fertility, high levels of human capital, technical change generated by profit-motivated R&D, and increasingly frequent GPT arrivals. The associated energy transition results from the endogenous shortage in the availability of renewable resources, and the arrival of new GPTs that, together, redirect technical change towards the exploitation of previously unprofitable exhaustible energy. A calibrated version of the model replicates the historical experience of Great Britain from 1700 to 1960. Counterfactual simulations are performed to characterize the impact of the energy transition on the timing and magnitude of the British economic take-off. Another simulation exercise compares the different trajectories of Western Europe and Eastern Asia to determine which parameters of our model are the most crucial to reflect the diverging dynamics of these two world regions.
- École Polytechnique France
- University of Sussex United Kingdom
- French Institute for Research in Computer Science and Automation France
- Pantheon-Sorbonne University France
- University of Paris France
JEL: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C6 - Mathematical Methods • Programming Models • Mathematical and Simulation Modeling/C.C6.C68 - Computable General Equilibrium Models, JEL: O - Economic Development, 330, or Comparative, Directed Technical Change, Useful Knowledge, Energy Transition, JEL: N - Economic History/N.N1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics • Industrial Structure • Growth • Fluctuations/N.N1.N10 - General, Processes and Incentives [JEL], [SHS]Humanities and Social Sciences, and Growth/O.O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity/O.O4.O40 - General, JEL: J - Labor and Demographic Economics/J.J2 - Demand and Supply of Labor/J.J2.J24 - Human Capital • Skills • Occupational Choice • Labor Productivity, 339, JEL: J - Labor and Demographic Economics/J.J1 - Demographic Economics/J.J1.J13 - Fertility • Family Planning • Child Care • Children • Youth, [ SHS.ECO ] Humanities and Social Sciences/Economies and finances, Useful knowledge, Innovation, Energy transition, Directed technical change, Demography, Unified Growth Theory, Unified growth theory, O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth/O.O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity/O.O4.O40 - General [JEL], Demographic transition, JEL: N - Economic History/N.N1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics • Industrial Structure • Growth • Fluctuations/N.N1.N10 - General, International, or Comparative, [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, Technological Change, J - Labor and Demographic Economics/J.J1 - Demographic Economics/J.J1.J13 - Fertility • Family Planning • Child Care • Children • Youth [JEL], J - Labor and Demographic Economics/J.J2 - Demand and Supply of Labor/J.J2.J24 - Human Capital • Skills • Occupational Choice • Labor Productivity [JEL], International, and Growth/O.O3 - Innovation • Research and Development • Technological Change • Intellectual Property Rights/O.O3.O31 - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives, JEL: O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth/O.O3 - Innovation • Research and Development • Technological Change • Intellectual Property Rights/O.O3.O31 - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives, Demographic Transition, JEL: O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth/O.O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity/O.O4.O40 - General, N - Economic History/N.N1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics • Industrial Structure • Growth • Fluctuations/N.N1.N10 - General, International, or Comparative [JEL], jel: jel:N - Economic History/N.N1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics • Industrial Structure • Growth • Fluctuations/N.N1.N10 - General, International, or Comparative, jel: jel:O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth/O.O3 - Innovation • Research and Development • Technological Change • Intellectual Property Rights/O.O3.O31 - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives, jel: jel:J - Labor and Demographic Economics/J.J2 - Demand and Supply of Labor/J.J2.J24 - Human Capital • Skills • Occupational Choice • Labor Productivity, jel: jel:J - Labor and Demographic Economics/J.J1 - Demographic Economics/J.J1.J13 - Fertility • Family Planning • Child Care • Children • Youth, jel: jel:O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth/O.O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity/O.O4.O40 - General, jel: jel:C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C6 - Mathematical Methods • Programming Models • Mathematical and Simulation Modeling/C.C6.C68 - Computable General Equilibrium Models
JEL: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C6 - Mathematical Methods • Programming Models • Mathematical and Simulation Modeling/C.C6.C68 - Computable General Equilibrium Models, JEL: O - Economic Development, 330, or Comparative, Directed Technical Change, Useful Knowledge, Energy Transition, JEL: N - Economic History/N.N1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics • Industrial Structure • Growth • Fluctuations/N.N1.N10 - General, Processes and Incentives [JEL], [SHS]Humanities and Social Sciences, and Growth/O.O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity/O.O4.O40 - General, JEL: J - Labor and Demographic Economics/J.J2 - Demand and Supply of Labor/J.J2.J24 - Human Capital • Skills • Occupational Choice • Labor Productivity, 339, JEL: J - Labor and Demographic Economics/J.J1 - Demographic Economics/J.J1.J13 - Fertility • Family Planning • Child Care • Children • Youth, [ SHS.ECO ] Humanities and Social Sciences/Economies and finances, Useful knowledge, Innovation, Energy transition, Directed technical change, Demography, Unified Growth Theory, Unified growth theory, O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth/O.O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity/O.O4.O40 - General [JEL], Demographic transition, JEL: N - Economic History/N.N1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics • Industrial Structure • Growth • Fluctuations/N.N1.N10 - General, International, or Comparative, [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, Technological Change, J - Labor and Demographic Economics/J.J1 - Demographic Economics/J.J1.J13 - Fertility • Family Planning • Child Care • Children • Youth [JEL], J - Labor and Demographic Economics/J.J2 - Demand and Supply of Labor/J.J2.J24 - Human Capital • Skills • Occupational Choice • Labor Productivity [JEL], International, and Growth/O.O3 - Innovation • Research and Development • Technological Change • Intellectual Property Rights/O.O3.O31 - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives, JEL: O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth/O.O3 - Innovation • Research and Development • Technological Change • Intellectual Property Rights/O.O3.O31 - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives, Demographic Transition, JEL: O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth/O.O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity/O.O4.O40 - General, N - Economic History/N.N1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics • Industrial Structure • Growth • Fluctuations/N.N1.N10 - General, International, or Comparative [JEL], jel: jel:N - Economic History/N.N1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics • Industrial Structure • Growth • Fluctuations/N.N1.N10 - General, International, or Comparative, jel: jel:O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth/O.O3 - Innovation • Research and Development • Technological Change • Intellectual Property Rights/O.O3.O31 - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives, jel: jel:J - Labor and Demographic Economics/J.J2 - Demand and Supply of Labor/J.J2.J24 - Human Capital • Skills • Occupational Choice • Labor Productivity, jel: jel:J - Labor and Demographic Economics/J.J1 - Demographic Economics/J.J1.J13 - Fertility • Family Planning • Child Care • Children • Youth, jel: jel:O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth/O.O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity/O.O4.O40 - General, jel: jel:C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C6 - Mathematical Methods • Programming Models • Mathematical and Simulation Modeling/C.C6.C68 - Computable General Equilibrium Models
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