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How Do Oil Prices Affect the GDP and its Components? New Evidence from a Time-Varying Threshold Model

handle: 10419/300035 , 10419/299898
Revealing the precise thresholds at which fluctuations in oil prices start to affect gross domestic product and its various components (consumption, investment, expenditure and exports) holds significant implications for policymakers in both oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. Existing studies assessing the effects of oil prices on economic activity typically assume constant or stable threshold values. However, recent evidence suggests that this restrictive assumption may not accurately capture the dynamic nature of these relationships. We address this issue by adopting a more realistic framework that allows for the possibility that oil prices will have a time-varying effect on economic activity. We also employ the innovative time-varying threshold regression kink model of Yang and Su (2018). Our analysis focuses on a sample of 20 top oil-importing and oil-exporting countries during the period 1995Q1 to 2023Q2. The findings of our investigation provide compelling evidence to support the existence of time-varying threshold levels in the relationship between oil prices and macroeconomic activity for most countries in our sample. Notably, our research unveils a substantial heterogeneity in the oil price thresholds across the investigated countries, thereby challenging the notion of a universal threshold applicable to all.
- University of Monastir Tunisia
- Clermont Université France
- Clermont Université France
- University of Monastir Tunisia
- Université François-Rabelais Tours France
Q40, oil-exporting countries, Q43, ddc:330, oil price, Q4, GDP and its components, oil-importing countries, C50, time-varying threshold, [SHS.ECO] Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, C5
Q40, oil-exporting countries, Q43, ddc:330, oil price, Q4, GDP and its components, oil-importing countries, C50, time-varying threshold, [SHS.ECO] Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, C5
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).2 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Average influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Average impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Average
