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Energy Strategy Reviews
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
Energy Strategy Reviews
Article . 2025
Data sources: DOAJ
https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4...
Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Power System Planning in the North Sea Area Under Demand Uncertainty and Risk Aversion

Authors: Lars Skjelbred Nygaard; Emil Dimanchev; Magnus Korpås;

Power System Planning in the North Sea Area Under Demand Uncertainty and Risk Aversion

Abstract

Electricity demand is increasingly difficult to predict due the uncertain timing and scale of future electrification, data center consumption, and electrolytic hydrogen adoption. This poses a new source of risk for power system planning. Though planners are often risk-averse, energy system modeling commonly takes a risk-neutral perspective. Here, we consider the implications of risk aversion concerning demand uncertainty for the optimal planning of power systems surrounding the North Sea. This region is both facing considerable demand uncertainty and expected to see substantial new investment in electricity generation capacity. In our exploratory experiments, optimal risk-averse planning under demand uncertainty features a higher share of renewable and storage investment by 2040, our planning horizon, compared to risk-neutral planning. As a result, risk-averse planning also leads to lower expected CO2 emissions in our case study. Overall, our results suggest that renewables and storage can provide a hedge against demand uncertainty.

Keywords

Energy systems, Climate policy, Stochastic optimization, Uncertainty, European power system, Risk aversion, HD9502-9502.5, Energy industries. Energy policy. Fuel trade

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
gold
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