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The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Empirical Evidence for India

doi: 10.2139/ssrn.900285
This study assesses the oil prices-macaroeconomy relationship by means of multivariate VAR using both linear and non-linear specifications. Scaled oil prices model outperforms other models used in the study. It studies the impacts of oil price shocks on the growth of industrial production for Indian economy over the period 1975Q1-2004Q3. It is found that oil prices Granger cause macroeconomic activities. Evidence of asymmetric impact of oil price shocks on industrial growth is found. Oil price shocks negatively affects the growth of industrial production and we find that an hundred percent increase in oil prices lowers the growth of industrial production by one percent. Moreover, the variance decomposition analysis while putting the study in perspective finds that the oil price shocks combined with the monetary shocks are the largest source of variation in industrial production growth other than the variable itself.
- University of Delhi India
- TERI University India
- TERI University India
jel: jel:E0, jel: jel:Q4
jel: jel:E0, jel: jel:Q4
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).10 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Average influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Average impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Average
