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Forecasting Italian electricity market prices using a Neural Network and a Support Vector Regression
This work explores two different techniques for the prediction of the Italian day-ahead electricity market prices, the zonal prices and the uniform purchase price (Prezzo Unico Nazionale or PUN). The study is conducted over a 2-year long period, with hourly data of the prices to be predicted and a large set of variables used as predictors (i.e. historical prices, forecast load, wind and solar power forecasts, expected plenty or shortage of hydroelectric production, net transfer capacity available at the interconnections and the gas prices). A Neural Network (NN) and a Support Vector Regression (SVR) are applied on the different predictors to obtain the final forecasts. Different predictors' combinations are analyzed in order to find the best forecast. We compare the NN and SVR to two less sophisticated post-processing methods, i.e. a linear regression (LR) and the persistency (P).
- University of Bergamo Italy
Sustainability and the Environment, neural network, Computer Networks and Communications, price forecasting, Energy Engineering and Power Technology, Electricity market, Hardware and Architecture, Electricity market; neural network; price forecasting; support vector machine; Computer Networks and Communications; Hardware and Architecture; Energy Engineering and Power Technology; Renewable Energy; Sustainability and the Environment;, support vector machine, Renewable Energy, Settore MAT/09 - Ricerca Operativa
Sustainability and the Environment, neural network, Computer Networks and Communications, price forecasting, Energy Engineering and Power Technology, Electricity market, Hardware and Architecture, Electricity market; neural network; price forecasting; support vector machine; Computer Networks and Communications; Hardware and Architecture; Energy Engineering and Power Technology; Renewable Energy; Sustainability and the Environment;, support vector machine, Renewable Energy, Settore MAT/09 - Ricerca Operativa
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).8 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Average impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
