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Comprehensive forecasting of California’s energy consumption: A multi-source and sectoral analysis using ARIMA and ARIMAX models

California’s significant role as the second-largest consumer of energy in the United States underscores the importance of accurate energy consumption predictions. With a thriving industrial sector, a burgeoning population, and ambitious environmental goals, the state’s energy landscape is dynamic and complex. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of California’s energy consumption trends and provides detailed forecasting models for different energy sources and sectors. The study leverages ARIMA and ARIMAX models, considering both historical consumption data and exogenous variables. We address the unique challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic and the limited data for 2022, highlighting the resilience of these models in the face of uncertainty. Our analysis reveals that while fossil fuels continue to dominate California’s energy landscape, renewable energy sources, particularly solar and biomass, are experiencing substantial growth. Hydroelectric power, while sensitive to precipitation, remains a significant contributor to renewable energy consumption. Furthermore, we anticipate ongoing efforts to reduce fossil fuel consumption. The forecasts for energy consumption by sector suggest some decline in the commercial and residential sectors, reflecting California’s recently declining population and the shift away from brick-and-mortar shops and offices to online websites and remote work. In contrast, the industrial and transportation sectors are expected to experience some growth until they return to more constant pre-COVID levels.
- California State University, Fullerton United States
- California State University, Sacramento United States
- Cypress College United States
- University of California, Irvine United States
- Cyprus College Cyprus
Predictive Models, ARIMA, Statistics - Applications, Energy Forecasting, California Energy, Sectoral Analysis
Predictive Models, ARIMA, Statistics - Applications, Energy Forecasting, California Energy, Sectoral Analysis
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).0 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Average influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Average impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Average
