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Advancing bioenergetics-based modeling to improve climate change projections of marine ecosystems

Authors: Paula, JR; Bednaršek, N; Muhling, BA; Koenigstein, S; Bueno-Pardo, J; Huebert, KB; Nye, JA; +17 Authors

Advancing bioenergetics-based modeling to improve climate change projections of marine ecosystems

Abstract

Climate change has rapidly altered marine ecosystems and is expected to continue to push systems and species beyond historical baselines into novel conditions. Projecting responses of organisms and populations to these novel environmental conditions often requires extrapolations beyond observed conditions, challenging the predictive limits of statistical modeling capabilities. Bioenergetics modeling provides the mechanistic basis for projecting climate change effects on marine living resources in novel conditions, has a long history of development, and has been applied widely to fish and other taxa. We provide our perspective on 4 opportunities that will advance the ability of bioenergetics-based models to depict changes in the productivity and distribution of fishes and other marine organisms, leading to more robust projections of climate impacts. These are (1) improved depiction of bioenergetics processes to derive realistic individual-level response(s) to complex changes in environmental conditions, (2) innovations in scaling individual-level bioenergetics to project responses at the population and food web levels, (3) more realistic coupling between spatial dynamics and bioenergetics to better represent the local- to regional-scale differences in the effects of climate change on the spatial distributions of organisms, and (4) innovations in model validation to ensure that the next generation of bioenergetics-based models can be used with known and sufficient confidence. Our focus on specific opportunities will enable critical advancements in bioenergetics modeling and position the modeling community to make more accurate and robust projections of the effects of climate change on individuals, populations, food webs, and ecosystems.

Countries
France, Denmark, France, Netherlands, United States
Keywords

570, [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio], Bioenergetics, Oceanography, Ecological applications, Bioenergetics;Modeling;Climate change;Fish;Projections;Challenges;Agent-based, Life Science, Climate change, /dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action; name=SDG 13 - Climate Action, Challenges, Projections, Ecology, /dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/life_below_water; name=SDG 14 - Life Below Water, Modeling, Agent-based, Biological Sciences, Marine Biology & Hydrobiology, Climate Action, [SDV] Life Sciences [q-bio], Fish, Ecological Applications, Zoology, Environmental Sciences

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    6
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
6
Average
Average
Top 10%
Green
hybrid
Related to Research communities
Energy Research