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Feeling the Heat: Temperature, Physiology & the Wealth of Nations

Does temperature affect economic performance? Has temperature always affected social welfare through its impact on physical and cognitive function? While many studies have explored the indirect links between climate and welfare (e.g. agricultural yield, violent conflict, or sea-level rise), few address the possibility of direct impacts operating through human physiology. This paper presents a model of labor supply under thermal stress, building on a longstanding physiological literature linking thermal stress to health and task performance. A key prediction is that effective labor supply – defined as a composite of labor hours, task performance, and effort – is decreasing in temperature deviations from the biological optimum. We use country-level panel data on population-weighted average temperature and income (1950-2005), to illustrate the potential magnitude of the effect. Using a fixed effects estimation strategy, we find that hotter-than-average years are associated with lower output per capita for already hot countries and higher output per capita for cold countries: approximately 3%-4% in both directions. We then use household data on air conditioning and heating expenditures from the US to provide further evidence in support of a physiologically based causal mechanism. This more direct causal link between climate and social welfare has important implications for both the economics of climate change and comparative development.
- Harvard University United States
- King’s University United States
- National Bureau of Economic Research United States
- National Bureau of Economic Research United States
economic geography, Q54, labor productivity, labor productivity, climate change, development, economic geography, health and human capital, economic growth, economic growth, climate change, health and human capital, development, jel: jel:J01, jel: jel:Q54, jel: jel:Q56, ddc: ddc:330
economic geography, Q54, labor productivity, labor productivity, climate change, development, economic geography, health and human capital, economic growth, economic growth, climate change, health and human capital, development, jel: jel:J01, jel: jel:Q54, jel: jel:Q56, ddc: ddc:330
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).58 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
