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Applied Sciences
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Applied Sciences
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Applied Sciences
Article . 2020
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Hybrid Load Forecasting Using Gaussian Process Regression and Novel Residual Prediction

Authors: Cosmin Darab; Turcu Antoniu; Horia Gheorghe Beleiu; Sorin Pavel; Iulian Birou; Dan Doru Micu; Stefan Ungureanu; +1 Authors

Hybrid Load Forecasting Using Gaussian Process Regression and Novel Residual Prediction

Abstract

Short-term electricity load forecasting has attracted considerable attention as a result of the crucial role that it plays in power systems and electricity markets. This paper presents a novel hybrid forecasting method that combines an autoregressive model with Gaussian process regression. Mixed-user, hourly, historical data are used to train, validate, and evaluate the model. The empirical wavelet transform was used to preprocess the data. Among the perturbing factors, the most influential predictors that were recorded were the weather factors and day type. The developed methodology is upgraded using a novel closed-loop algorithm that uses the forecasting values and influential factors to predict the residuals. Most performance indicators that are computed indicate that forecasting the residuals actually improves the method’s precision, decreasing the mean absolute percentage error from 5.04% to 4.28%. Measured data are used to validate the effectiveness of the presented approach, making it a suitable tool for use in load forecasting by utility companies.

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Keywords

Technology, empirical wavelet transform, QH301-705.5, T, Physics, QC1-999, Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General), residuals prediction, energy forecasting, Chemistry, machine learning models, TA1-2040, Biology (General), QD1-999, Gaussian process regression

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    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    5
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
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    impulse
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
5
Top 10%
Average
Average
gold