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Big Data and Cognitive Computing
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An Improved Pattern Sequence-Based Energy Load Forecast Algorithm Based on Self-Organizing Maps and Artificial Neural Networks

Authors: D. Criado-Ramón; L. G. B. Ruiz; M. C. Pegalajar;

An Improved Pattern Sequence-Based Energy Load Forecast Algorithm Based on Self-Organizing Maps and Artificial Neural Networks

Abstract

Pattern sequence-based models are a type of forecasting algorithm that utilizes clustering and other techniques to produce easily interpretable predictions faster than traditional machine learning models. This research focuses on their application in energy demand forecasting and introduces two significant contributions to the field. Firstly, this study evaluates the use of pattern sequence-based models with large datasets. Unlike previous works that use only one dataset or multiple datasets with less than two years of data, this work evaluates the models in three different public datasets, each containing eleven years of data. Secondly, we propose a new pattern sequence-based algorithm that uses a genetic algorithm to optimize the number of clusters alongside all other hyperparameters of the forecasting method, instead of using the Cluster Validity Indices (CVIs) commonly used in previous proposals. The results indicate that neural networks provide more accurate results than any pattern sequence-based algorithm and that our proposed algorithm outperforms other pattern sequence-based algorithms, albeit with a longer training time.

Country
Spain
Related Organizations
Keywords

Technology, Energy, Pattern, T, time-series forecasting, Clustering, Genetic algorithm, Time series forecasting, time-series forecasting; clustering; patterns; genetic algorithm; energy, genetic algorithm, patterns, clustering, energy

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    3
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
3
Average
Average
Average
gold