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Forecasting Heating Consumption in Buildings: A Scalable Full-Stack Distributed Engine

Authors: Andrea Acquaviva; Daniele Apiletti; Antonio Attanasio; Elena Baralis; Lorenzo Bottaccioli; Tania Cerquitelli; Silvia Chiusano; +2 Authors

Forecasting Heating Consumption in Buildings: A Scalable Full-Stack Distributed Engine

Abstract

Predicting power demand of building heating systems is a challenging task due to the high variability of their energy profiles. Power demand is characterized by different heating cycles including sequences of various transient and steady-state phases. To effectively perform the predictive task by exploiting the huge amount of fine-grained energy-related data collected through Internet of Things (IoT) devices, innovative and scalable solutions should be devised. This paper presents PHi-CiB, a scalable full-stack distributed engine, addressing all tasks from energy-related data collection, to their integration, storage, analysis, and modeling. Heterogeneous data measurements (e.g., power consumption in buildings, meteorological conditions) are collected through multiple hardware (e.g., IoT devices) and software (e.g., web services) entities. Such data are integrated and analyzed to predict the average power demand of each building for different time horizons. First, the transient and steady-state phases characterizing the heating cycle of each building are automatically identified; then the power-level forecasting is performed for each phase. To this aim, PHi-CiB relies on a pipeline of three algorithms: the Exponentially Weighted Moving Average, the Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline, and the Linear Regression with Stochastic Gradient Descent. PHi-CiB’s current implementation exploits Apache Spark and MongoDB and supports parallel and scalable processing and analytical tasks. Experimental results, performed on energy-related data collected in a real-world system show the effectiveness of PHi-CiB in predicting heating power consumption of buildings with a limited prediction error and an optimal horizontal scalability.

Country
Italy
Keywords

TK7800-8360, prediction models, peak shaving, energy forecasting, big data framework, Cyber-Physical System, big data framework; Cyber-Physical System; district heating; energy efficiency; energy forecasting; peak shaving; prediction models, Electronics, energy efficiency, district heating

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    9
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
9
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
gold