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Comparison of LSSVR, M5RT, NF-GP, and NF-SC Models for Predictions of Hourly Wind Speed and Wind Power Based on Cross-Validation

Authors: Rana Muhammad Adnan; Zhongmin Liang; Xiaohui Yuan; Ozgur Kisi; Muhammad Akhlaq; Binquan Li;

Comparison of LSSVR, M5RT, NF-GP, and NF-SC Models for Predictions of Hourly Wind Speed and Wind Power Based on Cross-Validation

Abstract

Accurate predictions of wind speed and wind energy are essential in renewable energy planning and management. This study was carried out to test the accuracy of two different neuro fuzzy techniques (neuro fuzzy system with grid partition (NF-GP) and neuro fuzzy system with substractive clustering (NF-SC)), and two heuristic regression methods (least square support vector regression (LSSVR) and M5 regression tree (M5RT)) in the prediction of hourly wind speed and wind power using a cross-validation method. Fourfold cross-validation was employed by dividing the data into four equal subsets. LSSVR’s performance was superior to that of the M5RT, NF-SC, and NF-GP models for all datasets in wind speed prediction. The overall average root-mean-square errors (RMSE) of the M5RT, NF-GP, and NF-SC models decreased by 11.71%, 1.68%, and 2.94%, respectively, using the LSSVR model. The applicability of the four different models was also investigated in the prediction of one-hour-ahead wind power. The results showed that NF-GP’s performance was superior to that of LSSVR, NF-SC, and M5RT. The overall average RMSEs of LSSVR, NF-SC, and M5RT decreased by 5.52%, 1.30%, and 15.6%, respectively, using NF-GP.

Keywords

Technology, T, least square support vector regression, forecasting, wind power, M5 regression tree, wind speed; wind power; forecasting; least square support vector regression; M5 regression tree; neuro-fuzzy system; Sotavento Galicia wind farm, Sotavento Galicia wind farm, wind speed, neuro-fuzzy system

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    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    49
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 1%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
49
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 1%
gold