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Multi-Scenario Analysis of Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions: The Case of Hebei Province in China

doi: 10.3390/en12040624
In view of the complexity of the energy system and its complex relationship with socio-economic factors, this study adopts the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model, a technology-based, bottom-up approach, scenario-based analysis, to develop a systematic analysis of the current and future energy consumption, supply and associated Green House Gas (GHG) emissions from 2015 to 2050. The impact of various energy policies on the energy system in Hebei Province was analysed by considering four scenarios: a Reference Scenario (REF), Industrial Structure Optimization Scenario (ISO), Terminal Consumption Structure Optimization Scenario (TOS) and Low-carbon Development Scenario (LCD). By designing strategic policies from the perspective of industrial adjustment, aggressive energy structure policies and measures, such as the ISO and the TOS, and even more aggressive options, such as the LCD, where the percentage of cleaner alternative energy sources has been further increased, it has been indicated that energy consumption will have increased from 321.618 million tonnes of coal equivalent (Mtce) in 2015 to 784.88 Mtce in 2050 in the REF, with a corresponding increase in GHG emissions from 920.56 million metric tonnes (Mt) to 2262.81 Mt. In contrast, the more aggressive policies and strategies involved in the LCD, which combines the ISO with the policy-oriented TOS, can lower energy consumption by 50.82% and CO2 emissions by 64.26%. The results shed light on whether and how these scenarios can shape the energy-carbon emission reduction trajectories and develop the low-carbon pathways in Hebei Province.
- Chinese Academy of Science (中国科学院) China (People's Republic of)
- Chinese Academy of Sciences (中国科学院) China (People's Republic of)
- China University of Mining and Technology China (People's Republic of)
- Chinese Academy of Science China (People's Republic of)
- Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research China (People's Republic of)
Technology, T, scenario analysis, bottom-up approach, Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP), energy consumption, carbon emission
Technology, T, scenario analysis, bottom-up approach, Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP), energy consumption, carbon emission
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