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A Novel Ensemble Approach for the Forecasting of Energy Demand Based on the Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm

doi: 10.3390/en13030550
Accurate forecasting of the energy demand is crucial for the rational formulation of energy policies for energy management. In this paper, a novel ensemble forecasting model based on the artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm for the energy demand was proposed and adopted. The ensemble model forecasts were based on multiple time variables, such as the gross domestic product (GDP), industrial structure, energy structure, technological innovation, urbanization rate, population, consumer price index, and past energy demand. The model was trained and tested using the primary energy demand data collected in China. Seven base models, including the regression-based model and machine learning models, were utilized and compared to verify the superior performance of the ensemble forecasting model proposed herein. The results revealed that (1) the proposed ensemble model is significantly superior to the benchmark prediction models and the simple average ensemble prediction model just in terms of the forecasting accuracy and hypothesis test, (2) the proposed ensemble approach with the ABC algorithm can be employed as a promising framework for energy demand forecasting in terms of the forecasting accuracy and hypothesis test, and (3) the forecasting results obtained for the future energy demand by the ensemble model revealed that the future energy demand of China will maintain a steady growth trend.
- Chinese Academy of Sciences (中国科学院) China (People's Republic of)
- Chinese Academy of Sciences China (People's Republic of)
- Chinese Academy of Science (中国科学院) China (People's Republic of)
- University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences China (People's Republic of)
- Chinese Academy of Science China (People's Republic of)
Technology, energy demand; ensemble framework; forecasting; machine learning; artificial bee colony algorithm, energy demand, T, forecasting, ensemble framework, machine learning, artificial bee colony algorithm
Technology, energy demand; ensemble framework; forecasting; machine learning; artificial bee colony algorithm, energy demand, T, forecasting, ensemble framework, machine learning, artificial bee colony algorithm
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