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Self-Reinforcing Electricity Price Dynamics under the Variable Market Premium Scheme

doi: 10.3390/en13205350
We report a potential self-reinforcing design flaw in the variable market premium scheme that occurs if variable renewable energy power plants receiving a premium become price-setting in the market. A high share of renewable energy is a goal of many countries on their transformation path to a sustainable future. Accordingly, policies like feed-in tariffs have been in place for many years in many countries to support investment. To foster market alignment, variable market premia have been introduced in at least 12 European countries and a further dozen additional countries world-wide. We demonstrate both with a mathematical model and different scenarios of an agent-based simulation that the combination of variable premia and a high share of hours in which renewables are price-setting may lead to a self-reinforcing downward spiral of prices if unchecked. This is caused by the market premium opening up the bidding space towards negative prices. We discuss possible objections and countermeasures and evaluate the severity of this market design flaw.
- German Aerospace Center Germany
Technology, energy policy; market premia; price dynamics; renewable energy; agent-based simulation, Energiesystemanalyse, T, renewable energy, market premia, price dynamics, energy policy, agent-based simulation
Technology, energy policy; market premia; price dynamics; renewable energy; agent-based simulation, Energiesystemanalyse, T, renewable energy, market premia, price dynamics, energy policy, agent-based simulation
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).13 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Average impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% visibility views 4 download downloads 4 - 4views4downloads
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