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Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting with Recurrent Regimes and Structural Breaks

Authors: Rodrigo A. de Marcos; Derek W. Bunn; Antonio Bello; Javier Reneses;

Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting with Recurrent Regimes and Structural Breaks

Abstract

This paper develops a new approach to short-term electricity forecasting by focusing upon the dynamic specification of an appropriate calibration dataset prior to model specification. It challenges the conventional forecasting principles which argue that adaptive methods should place most emphasis upon recent data and that regime-switching should likewise model transitions from the latest regime. The approach in this paper recognises that the most relevant dataset in the episodic, recurrent nature of electricity dynamics may not be the most recent. This methodology provides a dynamic calibration dataset approach that is based on cluster analysis applied to fundamental market regime indicators, as well as structural time series breakpoint analyses. Forecasting is based upon applying a hybrid fundamental optimisation model with a neural network to the appropriate calibration data. The results outperform other benchmark models in backtesting on data from the Iberian electricity market of 2017, which presents a considerable number of market structural breaks and evolving market price drivers.

Countries
Spain, United Kingdom, Spain
Keywords

Technology, 330, T, day-ahead electricity markets, Electricity supply industry, electricity price forecasting, fundamental-econometric models, Market forecasting, KTB, BADF, market structural breaks, day-ahead electricity markets; electricity price forecasting; fundamental-econometric models; market structural breaks

  • BIP!
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    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    9
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
9
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
gold
Related to Research communities
Energy Research