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Integrative Scenario Assessment as a Tool to Support Decisions in Energy Transition

Energy scenarios represent a prominent tool to support energy system transitions towards sustainability. In order to better fulfil this role, two elements are widely missing in previous work on designing, analyzing, and using scenarios: First, a more systematic integration of social and socio-technical characteristics of energy systems in scenario design, and, second, a method to apply an accordingly enhanced set of indicators in scenario assessment. In this article, an integrative scenario assessment methodology is introduced that combines these two requirements. It consists of: (i) A model-based scenario analysis using techno-economic and ecological indicators; (ii) a non-model-based analysis using socio-technical indicators; (iii) an assessment of scenario performances with respect to pre-determined indicator targets; (iv) a normalization method to make the two types of results (model-based and non-model-based) comparable; (v) an approach to classify results to facilitate structured interpretation. The combination of these elements represents the added-value of this methodology. It is illustrated for selected indicators, and exemplary results are presented. Methodological challenges and remaining questions, e.g., regarding the analysis of non-model-based indicators, resource requirements, or the robustness of the methodology are pointed out and discussed. We consider this integrative methodology being a substantial improvement of previous scenario assessment methodologies.
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology Germany
- Università degli studi di Salerno Italy
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis (ITAS) Germany
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis (ITAS) Germany
- German Aerospace Center Germany
Technology, ddc:600, decision support, 330, cross-impact balance, 333, normalization method, integrative assessment, semi-quantitative analysis, T, socio-technical scenarios, 333.7, 600, sustainability assessment; socio-technical scenarios; energy system model; decision support; integrative assessment; cross-impact balance; semi-quantitative analysis; normalization method, sustainability assessment, energy system model, info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/600, Energiesystemanalyse, ST
Technology, ddc:600, decision support, 330, cross-impact balance, 333, normalization method, integrative assessment, semi-quantitative analysis, T, socio-technical scenarios, 333.7, 600, sustainability assessment; socio-technical scenarios; energy system model; decision support; integrative assessment; cross-impact balance; semi-quantitative analysis; normalization method, sustainability assessment, energy system model, info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/600, Energiesystemanalyse, ST
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