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Fossil Energy in the Framework of Sustainable Development: Analysis of Prospects and Development of Forecast Scenarios

descriptionPublicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Journal , Other literature type 25 Aug 2021Publisher:MDPI AGJournal:Energies, volume 14, page 5,268 (eissn: 1996-1073,

Authors: Yuriy Leonidovich Zhukovskiy; Daria Evgenievna Batueva; Alexandra Dmitrievna Buldysko; Bernard Gil; Valeriia Vladimirovna Starshaia;

doi: 10.3390/en14175268

Fossil Energy in the Framework of Sustainable Development: Analysis of Prospects and Development of Forecast Scenarios

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Abstract

In the next 20 years, the fossil energy must become a guarantor of the sustainable development of the energy sector for future generations. Significant threats represent hurdles in this transition. This study identified current global trends in the energy sector and the prospects for the development of energy until 2035. The importance of risk assessment in scenario forecasting based on expert judgments was proven. Three contrasting scenarios, #StayHome, #StayAlone, and #StayEffective, for the development of fossil energy, all based on comprehensive analysis of global risks by expert survey and factor analysis, were developed. It was concluded that fossil energy is mandatory with integration of advanced technologies at every stage of the production of traditional energy and of renewable energy as an integral part of the modern energy sector. Based on the results of the study, nine ambitious programs for the development of sustainable energy are presented. They require the creation and the utilization of a single interactive digital platform adapted to this purpose. It is a passport mandatory for the flexible interaction of energy production, its transmission, and its consumption in the perspective of having a future sustainable, reliable, and secured energy sector.

Related Organizations

Saint Petersburg Mining University
Russian Federation
French National Centre for Scientific Research
France
University of Montpellier
France
Saint Petersburg Mining University
Russian Federation

Keywords

digital technologies, Technology, T, factor analysis, fossil energy, energy transition, sustainable energy development, [PHYS.COND.CM-GEN]Physics [physics]/Condensed Matter [cond-mat]/Other [cond-mat.other], sustainable energy development; fossil energy; renewable energy sources; digital technologies; energy transition; factor analysis; analysis of the scenario, renewable energy sources

Impact byBIP!

	citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).	73
	popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.	Top 1%
	influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).	Top 10%
	impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.	Top 1%