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Energies
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Energies
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Energies
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The Essence of Relationships between the Crude Oil Market and Foreign Currencies Market Based on a Study of Key Currencies

Authors: Marek Szturo; Bogdan Włodarczyk; Ireneusz Miciuła; Karolina Szturo;

The Essence of Relationships between the Crude Oil Market and Foreign Currencies Market Based on a Study of Key Currencies

Abstract

Structural changes occurring in the crude oil market have stimulated the emergence of hypotheses suggesting that the relationship between prices of this raw material and the US dollar exchange rate can gradually become similar to that observed between oil prices and exchange rates of the currencies of the countries whose revenues from the export of this resource are a significant part of their current account balance. The purpose of this study was to determine and evaluate the time-varying dependence between oil prices and the exchange rate of the US dollar in the context of the same relationship for the Chinese, European, Japanese, Saudi, and Russian currencies. The results of our analyses implicate that a negative correlation between the variables in question grows stronger in time periods preceding global shocks and during thereof. The dominance of the USD in the crude oil market is reflected in similar characteristics of the correlations of the currencies of other countries, such as China, countries of the Euro area, or Japan. As for countries exporting crude oil, the situation varies. The results of our research suggest the lack of a stable relationships between prices of crude oil and currency exchange rates. It is also impossible to observe a long-term, unequivocal tendency of the currencies of oil exporting countries being positively correlated with oil prices. Russia was the closest to this situation. In Saudi Arabia, a positive correlation emerged during moments of crisis.

Keywords

Technology, T, currencies, correlation, modeling the risk of energy commodities, global energy markets, crude oil, forecasting models

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    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    6
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
6
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
gold