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Energies
Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
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Energies
Article . 2022
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Economic Policy Uncertainty and Energy Prices: Empirical Evidence from Multivariate DCC-GARCH Models

Authors: Salim Hamza Ringim; Abdulkareem Alhassan; Hasan Güngör; Festus Victor Bekun;

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Energy Prices: Empirical Evidence from Multivariate DCC-GARCH Models

Abstract

Crude oil and natural gas are crucial to the Russian economy. Therefore, this study examined the interconnections between crude oil price, natural gas price, and Russian economic policy uncertainty (EPU) over the period 1994–2019 using multivariate DCC-MGARCH models. The findings show that there are strong interconnections (co-movement) between the energy prices and EPU in Russia, and that it might be misleading to assume independence or neutrality between the variables. Although Russia is also a crucial player in both the natural gas and the crude oil markets, this study reveals that there is a stronger co-movement of the EPU with gas price than with the oil price. Russia is the largest exporter of natural gas and the second-largest producer; it is plausible that the natural gas price correlates with EPU more than the crude oil price. Further, the correlation between gas price and EPU and the correlation between crude oil price and EPU have similar patterns. Each declines almost in the same period and, equally, increases concurrently. In addition, the results revealed that significant global shocks and crises, such as the 2008 global financial crisis, the 2014–2017 Russian financial crisis, the 9/11 terrorist attack, and the Russo–Ukrainian conflicts, influence the interconnections between the energy prices and Russian EPU.

Country
Turkey
Keywords

multivariate DCC-GARCH models, Technology, economic policy uncertainty, T, natural gas price, crude oil price, economic policy uncertainty; crude oil price; natural gas price; multivariate DCC-GARCH models

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    Top 10%
    influence
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
13
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
gold