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Scrutinizing the Intermittency of Renewable Energy in a Long-Term Planning Model via Combining Direct Integration and Soft-Linking Methods for Colombia’s Power System

Authors: Ahmed Younis; René Benders; Jezabel Ramírez; Merlijn de Wolf; André Faaij;

Scrutinizing the Intermittency of Renewable Energy in a Long-Term Planning Model via Combining Direct Integration and Soft-Linking Methods for Colombia’s Power System

Abstract

The large-scale integration of variable renewable energy sources into the energy system presents techno–economic challenges. Long–term energy system optimization models fail to adequately capture these challenges because of the low temporal resolution of these tools. This limitation has often been addressed either by direct improvements within the long–term models or by coupling them to higher resolution power system models. In this study, a combined approach is proposed to capitalize on the advantages and overcome the disadvantages of both methods. First, the temporal resolution of an energy model was enhanced by approximating the joint probability of the electricity load and the supply of intermittent sources. Second, the projected electricity mix was simulated by a power model at an hourly resolution. This framework was used to analyze mid–century deep decarbonization trajectories for Colombia, subject to future uncertainties of hydroclimatic variability and the development of the bioeconomy. The direct integration method is found to consistently reduce the overestimation of the feasible penetration of VRES. However, its impact is marginal because of its inability to assess the short–term operation of the power system in detail. When combined with the soft–linking method, the reliable operation of the power system is shown to incur an additional overhead of 12–17% investment in flexible generation capacity, 2–5% of the annual energy system cost, and a 15–27% shortfall in achieving the aspired GHG mitigation target. The results obtained by combining both methods are found to be closer to the global optimum solution than using either of these methods individually.

Country
Netherlands
Related Organizations
Keywords

Technology, Control and Optimization, hydroclimatic variability, variable renewable energy sources (VRES), Energy / Geological Survey Netherlands, Energy Engineering and Power Technology, Colombia, Temporal resolution, Power system simulation, Biomass, SDG 7 - Affordable and Clean Energy, Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Engineering (miscellaneous), biomass, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, T, Building and Construction, Hydroclimatic variability, Variable renewable energy sources (VRES), Fuel Technology, power system simulation, Energy system optimization model (ESOM), energy system optimization model (ESOM), temporal resolution, Energy (miscellaneous), energy system optimization model (ESOM); variable renewable energy sources (VRES); temporal resolution; power system simulation; biomass; hydroclimatic variability; Colombia

  • BIP!
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    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    8
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
8
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
gold