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Energies
Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
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Energies
Article . 2024
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Comparative Analysis of Methods for Predicting Brine Temperature in Vertical Ground Heat Exchanger—A Case Study

Authors: Joanna Piotrowska-Woroniak; Krzysztof Nęcka; Tomasz Szul; Stanisław Lis;

Comparative Analysis of Methods for Predicting Brine Temperature in Vertical Ground Heat Exchanger—A Case Study

Abstract

This research was carried out to compare selected forecasting methods, such as the following: Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), Classification and Regression Trees (CARTs), Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detector (CHAID), Fuzzy Logic Toolbox (FUZZY), Multivariant Adaptive Regression Splines (MARSs), Regression Trees (RTs), Rough Set Theory (RST), and Support Regression Trees (SRTs), in the context of determining the temperature of brine from vertical ground heat exchangers used by a heat pump heating system. The subject of the analysis was a public building located in Poland, in a temperate continental climate zone. The results of this study indicate that the models based on Rough Set Theory (RST) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) achieved the highest accuracy in predicting brine temperature, with the choice of the preferred method depending on the input variables used for modeling. Using three independent variables (mean outdoor air temperature, month of the heating season, mean solar irradiance), Rough Set Theory (RST) was one of the best models, for which the evaluation rates were as follows: CV RMSE 21.6%, MAE 0.3 °C, MAPE 14.3%, MBE 3.1%, and R2 0.96. By including an additional variable (brine flow rate), Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) achieved the most accurate predictions. They had the following evaluation rates: CV RMSE 4.6%, MAE 0.05 °C, MAPE 1.7%, MBE 0.4%, and R2 0.99.

Keywords

Technology, T, brine temperature from vertical ground heat exchangers, brine water heat pumps, CHAID, heating system energy efficiency, CART, prediction model based: ANN

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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