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Applying Principles of Uncertainty within Coastal Hazard Assessments to Better Support Coastal Adaptation

Authors: Scott A. Stephens; Robert G. Bell; Judy Lawrence;

Applying Principles of Uncertainty within Coastal Hazard Assessments to Better Support Coastal Adaptation

Abstract

Coastal hazards result from erosion of the shore, or flooding of low-elevation land when storm surges combine with high tides and/or large waves. Future sea-level rise will greatly increase the frequency and depth of coastal flooding and will exacerbate erosion and raise groundwater levels, forcing vulnerable communities to adapt. Communities, local councils and infrastructure operators will need to decide when and how to adapt. The process of decision making using adaptive pathways approaches, is now being applied internationally to plan for adaptation over time by anticipating tipping points in the future when planning objectives are no longer being met. This process requires risk and uncertainty considerations to be transparent in the scenarios used in adaptive planning. We outline a framework for uncertainty identification and management within coastal hazard assessments. The framework provides a logical flow from the land use situation, to the related level of uncertainty as determined by the situation, to which hazard scenarios to model, to the complexity level of hazard modeling required, and to the possible decision type. Traditionally, coastal flood hazard maps show inundated areas only. We present enhanced maps of flooding depth and frequency which clearly show the degree of hazard exposure, where that exposure occurs, and how the exposure changes with sea-level rise, to better inform adaptive planning processes. The new uncertainty framework and mapping techniques can better inform identification of trigger points for adaptation pathways planning and their expected time range, compared to traditional coastal flooding hazard assessments.

Keywords

environmental_sciences, sea-level rise; coastal hazard assessment; uncertainty; coastal adaptation; climate change, Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering, VM1-989, coastal hazard assessment, GC1-1581, sea-level rise, Oceanography, coastal adaptation, climate change, uncertainty

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    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    42
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
42
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green
gold