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Risk Assessment and Mitigation Model for Overseas Steel-Plant Project Investment with Analytic Hierarchy Process—Fuzzy Inference System

doi: 10.3390/su10124780
This paper presents an analytic hierarchy process (AHP)-fuzzy inference system (FIS) model to aid decision-makers in the risk assessment and mitigation of overseas steel-plant projects. Through a thorough literature review, the authors identified 57 risks associated with international steel construction, operation, and transference of new technologies. Pairwise comparisons of all 57 risks by 14 subject-matter experts resulted in a relative weighting. Furthermore, to mitigate human subjectivity, vagueness, and uncertainty, a fuzzy analysis based on the findings of two case studies was performed. From these combined analyses, weighted individual risk soring resulted in the following top five most impactful international steel project risks: procurement of raw materials; design errors and omissions; conditions of raw materials; technology spill prevention plan; investment cost and poor plant availability and performance. Risk mitigation measures are also presented, and risk scores are re-assessed through the AHP-FIS analysis model depicting an overall project risk score reduction. The model presented is a useful tool for industry performing steel project risk assessments. It also provides decision-makers with a better understanding of the criticality of risks that are likely to occur on international steel projects.
- University of Colorado System United States
- Pohang University of Science and Technology Korea (Republic of)
- Pohang University of Science and Technology Korea (Republic of)
690, Environmental effects of industries and plants, steel plant, Investment Sustainability, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), TJ807-830, TD194-195, Fuzzy Inference System (FIS), Natural resource development, Renewable energy sources, Environmental sciences, Risk assessment and mitigation, GE1-350, Engineer Procure and Construct (EPC)
690, Environmental effects of industries and plants, steel plant, Investment Sustainability, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), TJ807-830, TD194-195, Fuzzy Inference System (FIS), Natural resource development, Renewable energy sources, Environmental sciences, Risk assessment and mitigation, GE1-350, Engineer Procure and Construct (EPC)
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).29 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
