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Population-Based Simulation of Urban Growth: The Italian Case Study

doi: 10.3390/su10124838
handle: 11563/138164
Land take is one of the most studied phenomena in land use science. The increased attention to the issue of urban growth from both scientists and decision makers is justified by the dramatic negative effects on land use caused by anthropogenic activities. Within this context, researchers have developed and explored several models to forecast land use changes, some of which establish excellent scenario-based predictions of urban growth. However, there is still a lack of operative and user-friendly tools to be integrated into standard urban planning procedures. This paper explores the features of the recently published model FUTure Urban-Regional Environment Simulation integrated into the GRASSGIS environment, which generates urban growth simulation based on a plethora of driving variables. Specifically, the model was applied to the case study of urbanization in the Italian national territory. Hence, the aim of this work is to analyze the importance of population dynamics within the process of urban growth. A simulation of urban growth up to the year 2035 was performed. Results show that, despite the importance given to demographic aspects when defining urban policies over the last several decades, additional factors need to be considered during planning processes to overcome the housing issues currently experienced in Italy.
- University of Lausanne Switzerland
- University of Basilicata Italy
- Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics Switzerland
- Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics Switzerland
Cellular automata, Environmental effects of industries and plants, cellular automata, TJ807-830, 710, Urban growth, sustainability, TD194-195, Renewable energy sources, Environmental sciences, land use land cover changes, urban growth, Sustainability, Land use land cover change, GE1-350, GrassGIS
Cellular automata, Environmental effects of industries and plants, cellular automata, TJ807-830, 710, Urban growth, sustainability, TD194-195, Renewable energy sources, Environmental sciences, land use land cover changes, urban growth, Sustainability, Land use land cover change, GE1-350, GrassGIS
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).17 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Average impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
