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Is the Fiscal Deficit of ASEAN Alarming? Evidence from Fiscal Deficit Consequences and Contribution towards Sustainable Economic Growth

doi: 10.3390/su131810045
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has faced a persistent fiscal deficit for the last three decades. In the vast literature, a question is still arising: is ASEAN’s fiscal deficit alarming? This study explores the fiscal deficit with different perspectives to provide guidelines for policymakers to answer this question. For this purpose, we offer fiscal causal hypotheses estimates, including the contribution of Government expenditures (GEs) and Government revenues (GRs) towards sustainable economic growth; we then evaluated two additional deficit hypotheses, the impact of fiscal deficit and deficit financing on inflation. This empirical analysis covered annual financial data for the years 1990 to 2019 of ten member countries of ASEAN by applying panel econometric techniques, which include unit root Levin, Lin, and Chu (LLC) and Im, Pesaran, and Shin (IPS) tests; the panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model for cointegration; and the Dumitrescu–Hurlin (DH) test for causality. The findings revealed that government expenditures contribute more towards sustainable economic growth while government revenues are inversely related to growth in the long run. The DH causality test supported the fiscal synchronization hypothesis and current account targeting hypothesis in ASEAN. The interest rate is found as a moderator between fiscal and current account deficits. Furthermore, the findings showed that the fiscal deficit of ASEAN could generate inflation while relying on outstanding debt. Overall, our findings concluded that the fiscal deficit of ASEAN is alarming based on the behavior of government revenues, interest rate dynamics, political stability, and outstanding debt in deficit financing.
- Institute of Management Sciences Lahore Pakistan
- Universiti Teknologi Petronas Malaysia
- Kohat University of Science and Technology Pakistan
- Institute of Management Sciences Peshawar Pakistan
- University of Lincoln United Kingdom
panel cointegration, 330, TJ807-830, sustainable economic growth, TD194-195, Renewable energy sources, GE1-350, inflation, panel unit root, Environmental effects of industries and plants, panel DH causality, L110 - Applied economics, L100 - Economics, L111 - Financial economics, L140 - Econometrics, Environmental sciences, L130 - Macroeconomics, fiscal causal hypotheses, fiscal and current account deficits, twin deficit hypotheses, L113 - Economic policy
panel cointegration, 330, TJ807-830, sustainable economic growth, TD194-195, Renewable energy sources, GE1-350, inflation, panel unit root, Environmental effects of industries and plants, panel DH causality, L110 - Applied economics, L100 - Economics, L111 - Financial economics, L140 - Econometrics, Environmental sciences, L130 - Macroeconomics, fiscal causal hypotheses, fiscal and current account deficits, twin deficit hypotheses, L113 - Economic policy
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).5 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Average impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
