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Analysis of the Integration of Drift Detection Methods in Learning Algorithms for Electrical Consumption Forecasting in Smart Buildings

Authors: Deyslen Mariano-Hernández; Luis Hernández-Callejo; Martín Solís; Angel Zorita-Lamadrid; Oscar Duque-Pérez; Luis Gonzalez-Morales; Felix Santos García; +4 Authors

Analysis of the Integration of Drift Detection Methods in Learning Algorithms for Electrical Consumption Forecasting in Smart Buildings

Abstract

Buildings are currently among the largest consumers of electrical energy with considerable increases in CO2 emissions in recent years. Although there have been notable advances in energy efficiency, buildings still have great untapped savings potential. Within demand-side management, some tools have helped improve electricity consumption, such as energy forecast models. However, because most forecasting models are not focused on updating based on the changing nature of buildings, they do not help exploit the savings potential of buildings. Considering the aforementioned, the objective of this article is to analyze the integration of methods that can help forecasting models to better adapt to the changes that occur in the behavior of buildings, ensuring that these can be used as tools to enhance savings in buildings. For this study, active and passive change detection methods were considered to be integrators in the decision tree and deep learning models. The results show that constant retraining for the decision tree models, integrating change detection methods, helped them to better adapt to changes in the whole building’s electrical consumption. However, for deep learning models, this was not the case, as constant retraining with small volumes of data only worsened their performance. These results may lead to the option of using tree decision models in buildings where electricity consumption is constantly changing.

Country
Colombia
Keywords

drift detection, Electrical consumption forecasting, 330, Smart buildings, TJ807-830, TD194-195, Renewable energy sources, drift detection; electrical consumption forecasting; energy forecasting; machine learning; smart buildings, Energy forecasting, Machine learning, GE1-350, Environmental effects of industries and plants, 621, energy forecasting, Environmental sciences, machine learning, smart buildings, electrical consumption forecasting, Drift detection

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    13
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
13
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
gold