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Future Scenarios of Bioclimatic Viticulture Indices in the Eastern Mediterranean: Insights into Sustainable Vineyard Management in a Changing Climate

The evaluation of bioclimatic viticulture indices (BVIs) zones, similar to any other crop, necessitates a comprehensive understanding of the spatial variability of climate data. This study focuses on assessing the suitability of BVIs in the Jabal Al Arab region, a significant viticulture area in the Eastern Mediterranean. The aim is to analyze four temperature-based bioclimatic indices and the hydrothermal coefficient (HTC) to map their patterns and spatial variation across the region under climate change scenarios. Daily temperature data from 15 meteorological stations and 57 rain gauges spanning 1984–2014 were utilized, along with downscaled future scenarios (the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) based on the second generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2)) for 2016–2100. Additionally, statistical analysis and hybrid interpolation (regression-kriging) were employed to accurately map the BVIs throughout the region. The results reveal substantial spatial variability in Jabal Al Arab’s climate, with heat accumulation and the hydrothermal index during the growing season significantly influenced by elevation and distance to the seacoast. Additionally, the viticulture zones vary based on the specific index used and the projected future climate scenarios compared to the current climate. Climate change projections indicate a trend toward warmer conditions in the future. Under the RCP scenarios, the region can be categorized into up to three bioclimatic classes for certain indices, in contrast to the current climate with six classes. These findings offer valuable insights into viticulture suitability within each climatic region and facilitate the identification of homogeneous zones. By employing consistent bioclimatic indices and advanced hybrid interpolation techniques, this study enables meaningful comparisons of Jabal Al Arab with other viticulture regions worldwide. Such information is crucial for selecting suitable grapevine varieties and assessing the potential for grape production in the future.
- King Saud University Saudi Arabia
- King Saud University Saudi Arabia
- Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology China (People's Republic of)
- Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology China (People's Republic of)
- University of Bonn Germany
Environmental effects of industries and plants, grapevine (<i>Vitis vinifera</i>); hybrid interpolation; climate change; CanESM2; agro-climatic indices; sustainable farming; regression-kriging; RCPs; Syria, grapevine (<i>Vitis vinifera</i>), TJ807-830, TD194-195, Renewable energy sources, agro-climatic indices, Environmental sciences, climate change, CanESM2, hybrid interpolation, GE1-350, sustainable farming
Environmental effects of industries and plants, grapevine (<i>Vitis vinifera</i>); hybrid interpolation; climate change; CanESM2; agro-climatic indices; sustainable farming; regression-kriging; RCPs; Syria, grapevine (<i>Vitis vinifera</i>), TJ807-830, TD194-195, Renewable energy sources, agro-climatic indices, Environmental sciences, climate change, CanESM2, hybrid interpolation, GE1-350, sustainable farming
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).4 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Average impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Average
